Take a close look at your fantasy baseball team. How many players on it are playing well above their typical level? How many are underachieving?

Answer those questions, and you should have a pretty good sense of where your squad is heading in the second half.

How much of your team’s success is due to guys such as Casey Blake of the Indians? How close are you to the top despite having Cubs 3B Aramis Ramirez?

If you’re winning without a lot of overachievers or close despite a lot of underperformers, you’re right where you want to be. If not, time to start trading.

And when you do so, beware shiny objects.

Very often by June we get a sense that players off to slow starts are done, and we begin to believe in players who seem to be breakout guys.

It’s a mistake.

Recently I had to pick up a catcher off the waiver wire. I very nearly chose Dodgers rookie Russell Martin (.296-4-25), even though I knew Javy Lopez (.274-5-22) was available.

In the end, reason prevailed and I took Lopez. By September, that choice will look criminally obvious.

Don’t fall in love with June statistics. There’s a lot of season left. Look for tried-and-true talent. Many will soon fall victim to reality.

The second-half swoon of Indians outfielder Ben Broussard is so certain that there’s already a word in the dictionary that stems from his name: Broussardian. It means “glorious at first, followed by a precipitous fall from grace.”

In a sentence: “The Roman Empire was Broussardian in scope.”

Alternately: “Ben Broussard’s teammate Casey Blake’s 2006 season was painfully Broussardian.” See also the Marlins’ Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla.

Reality bites

Broussard, OF, Indians

The difference between a good player and a great one generally is consistency. Good players are capable of putting up killer numbers for a while, but tend to fall victim to slumps. Great ones avoid long slumps. Which category do you think Broussard (.353-9-33) falls into? His best season to date was 2004, when he went .272-17-82. He strikes out a ton, and in fact has continued to do so this year. Sure he’s improved, but a player with this much trouble making contact is unlikely to continue hitting at a .350 clip. What kind of numbers will he have in the second half if he’s to finish at around .300? Trade him while you can.

Ramirez, SS, Marlins

It’s no fun putting his name up here, because he’s been a terrific story and fun to watch this season. In time, he could evolve into an Alfonso Soriano-type player with a stunning mix of speed and power. He started incredibly strong, hitting .340 through May 23, but the descent has begun as pitchers learn more about him. He had six hits in his first 42 at-bats in June. If a lot of your team’s success comes from Hanley, trade him to a clueless league member while he still has value.

A little good news

Matt Kemp, OF, Dodgers

Forget everything I just said. This guy is for real. If he’s available, stop reading this now and pick him up. Then come back and finish reading. Any rookie immediately inserted into a team’s cleanup spot is worthy of close scrutiny. One who hits .378 with seven home runs in his first 45 major league at-bats deserves more. Kemp has the ability to be an elite hitter almost immediately in the majors. Last year in the minors he hit .306-27-90 with 23 stolen bases. Sure, the Dodgers have played lots of rookies so far and had great success. Kemp and Joel Guzman are the ones to pay attention to.

Geoff Jenkins, OF, Brewers

Two weeks ago, the best player available in every mixed league I saw was Corey Patterson. Now he’s gone. This week it’s Geoff Jenkins, universally dropped in fantasy leagues for his lackluster start. He’s currently batting .252-7-39. Nothing special, but last year he hit .258-9-33 before the All-Star break, and .332-16-53 after. He’s perhaps the one available guy who has the ability to carry your team in the second half. Stash him away on your bench immediately if you can get him.

Quick hits

Who is the best hitter in baseball without a regular job? Some might say Olmeido Saenz of the Dodgers. I’d choose the Astros’ Mike Lamb. Even the outs he hits into are hard, and those seem rare recently. After going 3-for-14 in April, he’s hitting .370 with five homers in 100 at-bats since. The Astros need his production. He’s an outfield or first base injury away from being an impact fantasy player. Speaking of impact utility players, it’s time to give the Twins’ Michael Cuddyer serious consideration. He has 10 home runs in 175 at-bats, is getting plenty of playing time, and has the talent to hit 30 home runs. Next week, the Giants’ Matt Cain looks good at home against the weak-hitting Angels and Athletics.