Upbeat forecast: White House upgrades prediction for growth

A trader works Thursday on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Stocks extended their losses to a fourth session Thursday as cooling crude prices were overshadowed by persistent worries about rising interest rates and weakness in markets around the globe. Those worries didn't stop the Bush administration from raising its economic forecast for this year. It said Thursday that it expected 3.6 percent growth this year up from an earlier forecast of 3.4 percent.

? The White House, in a slightly more optimistic forecast, predicted Thursday the economy will log solid growth and unemployment will dip this year.

The Bush administration forecast that the gross domestic product will grow by 3.6 percent, as measured from the fourth quarter of last year to the fourth quarter of this year. That is a better than its previous forecast of a 3.4 percent increase for this year.

The upgraded forecast comes despite a rise in energy prices and mostly reflects the big growth spurt in the opening quarter of this year.

“We continue to see signs that the U.S. economy is strong,” Treasury Secretary John Snow said.

For all of 2005, the economy expanded at a 3.2 percent pace.

The White House continues to predict solid economic growth in 2007 and 2008, at 3.3 percent of 3.2 percent respectively.

The administration’s new forecast also predicted further improvement in the unemployment rate, which had edged down to 5.1 percent by the end of last year. The White House now expects the jobless rate for all of 2006 to drop to 4.7 percent, compared with its previous forecast of 5 percent.

Inflation is projected to turn higher this year than thought six months ago. Consumer prices are expected to rise by 3 percent this year, compared with a previous forecast of a 2.4 percent. That higher inflation forecast reflects the big jump in energy prices this year.

The administration’s new figures are largely in line with forecasts from private economists. “It all looks very reasonable,” said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors.