Topeka ? The results of the November general elections could determine if the RINOs are ready to leave the preserve and seek greener pastures.

The RINOs – Republicans in name only – are moderate Republicans who have grown increasingly disenchanted with their role in the state’s dominant party. Over the past decade, they have watched their position of power erode in the Legislature and within the party structure itself. And at least a few are ready to look for new horizons.

But despite a high-profile defection, don’t expect a thundering herd anytime soon.

Mark Parkinson, the former state Republican chairman, left the party last week to join the Democratic re-election team of Gov. Kathleen Sebelius. Parkinson said although he had criticized Sebelius repeatedly in 2002, she’s not the liberal Democrat he feared would wreck Kansas government.

His endorsement of Sebelius and Democratic ideals sends a signal to moderates that jumping party lines isn’t something to be feared. The question becomes whether victories in November will spawn realignment of the state’s two dominant parties.

State Republican Chairman Tim Shallenburger doesn’t expect moderates to follow Parkinson in significant numbers. He sees Parkinson’s move one of an individual who clearly was out of place and out of favor with the GOP.

“Parkinson is way more like John Kerry than he is like George Bush. He’s way left. He was really out of place,” Shallenburger said.

The fact the party continues to outpace Democrats in registered voters proves it is more in step with Kansans, he said.

“You’re just watching a political show and Kathleen Sebelius is always entertaining,” Shallenburger said.

Revamping the Democratic Party would bolster Sebelius’ stature nationally, demonstrating that she has the charisma and talent to reach across party lines and woo Republicans to the fold. Such success would give Democrats a model for change across the Midwest where “red” states are as numerous as wheat fields and cattle, and would increase Sebelius’ stock for a bid for Congress or other prominent positions.

Bob Beatty, a Washburn University political scientist, agreed that Democrats are testing the waters for change after the election cycle.

If Sebelius wins, if new Democrat Paul Morrison beats GOP Atty. Gen. Phill Kline and Democrat Cindy Neighbor beats Republican Rep. Mary Pilcher Cook of Shawnee, the iron may hot for Democrats to strike a new alliance with moderates and relaunch the party.

“It seems like there is potential for some interesting things in Kansas politics. But they have to win,” Beatty said.

But Beatty said it may take more than election victories to get moderate Republicans to switch. There is a lot of baggage that goes along with party labels. Becoming a Democrat means you are from the same cloth of Kerry and Ted Kennedy, two East Coast liberals often used as the poster boys for why to vote Republican.

“You have to think dramatic, such as launching with a new name,” Beatty said.

Minnesota saw its Democratic Party reinvent itself in 1948 when it merged with the Farm-Labor Party, and Beatty thinks such an alliance could happen in Kansas.

Andy Wollen, chairman of the Kansas Traditional Republican Majority, doesn’t rule out moderates switching parties. He understands Parkinson’s desire to be where he can make a difference in the Kansas landscape. Wollen just isn’t sure others are ready.

“I think he moved too early. I don’t think there is a realignment yet,” Wollen said. “Pebbles fall of the cliff, but the rest of the avalanche is way behind it.”