Global fireworks not over

On Tuesday, Americans celebrated the Fourth of July by shooting off fireworks, including, of course, the space shuttle. The North Koreans shot off some fireworks of their own – missiles fired out into the Sea of Japan. And just to prove that they could join in the fun, the Palestinians fired a bigger-than-ever rocket into Israel.

We might as well get used to Fourths of July like this, because more are coming. Indeed, every day for the rest of our lives, we will see more and “better” military technology on display – and, eventually, being used.

You remember the arms race, don’t you? You know, Uncle Sam against the Soviets? Well, the Soviets dropped out in the ’90s, but the basic concept – the systematized fusion of political ambition and militarized R&D – is doing just fine.

Have you ever wondered why the Japanese have been so helpful to us in Iraq? Well, actually, they haven’t been helpful, in the sense of doing anything really to defeat the insurgency. But Japan’s mere presence in Iraq earned George W. Bush’s intense gratitude. And that gratitude means that Japan has a green light from America to proceed with its own re-militarization – its own piece of the arms race.

In Bush’s mind, Japan would be re-arming to help out in the Global War on Terror. But the Japanese are worried about their own neighborhood, which includes such tough customers as North Korea. Heck, the Japanese have to worry about South Korea; Japan and Korea are historic enemies. And the only thing that the Japanese fear more than a nuclear North Korea is a united Korea; then Northern nukes would be harnessed to Southern know-how – and nobody thinks that a missile made by Samsung would blow up mid-flight.

Oh, and there’s China, another ancient foe of the Rising Sun. Everything that Europeans say about the Nazi Wehrmacht, the Chinese say about the Japanese Imperial Army – but the difference is that, unlike the Germans, the Japanese have never really apologized for World War II, and they even kept their emperor.

With a political climate like that, it’s easy to see why there’s an arms race in Asia. Grievance and gadgetry are the twin roots of future conflict – and of all the many ballistic Fourths in our future.

Even the post-Soviet Russians are back to arms-racing. Now they’re selling air defense systems to the Iranians, as a way both of earning money and of extending their influence into Iran; Tehran is hot to trot, missile-wise and A-bomb-wise.

And speaking further of the Russians and what hijinks they might be up to, the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz suggests that the missile fired by the Palestinians into the town of Ashkelon on Tuesday was a Russian-made “Grad.” So the Palestinians might have gained access to a nifty new Russian import.

How did that happen?

Overall, the Arabs may lack the technical skills to be producers in the global arms derby – although Iraqis have proven themselves adept at making roadside bombs – but they have the oil money to become good consumers of the latest weaponry.

Welcome to the world in which you will live the rest of your life. Whether or not this is going to be the “liberty century,” as Bush believes, it is also going to be the “arms race century.” Oh, and did I mention that the natural companion to a fancy new missile is a nuclear warhead?

So what to do? Arms control treaties are a great idea, although, of course, countries violate them whenever they feel like it. Missile defense is an even better idea – let’s hope it works. And let’s not forget civil defense, if all else fails.

Finally, we might develop a more philosophical perspective: If the arms race is going to be our constant companion, we might as well learn to see the bright side – literally. Those future fireworks displays will be doozies.