Keegan: Royals should’ve switched

More committed ownership groups willing to spend on top free agents. Superior scouting. Cagier general managers at the trading deadline. All play parts in the American League’s current superiority over the National League.

And all those factors illustrate why the Kansas City Royals would be a better fit in the NL than the AL. So too does the last column in standings on the baseball page. Going into today’s game in St. Louis, the Royals have a 10-7 record (.588 winning percentage) against NL teams and a 17-45 record (.274 winning percentage) against AL teams. Overall, the AL had an interleague winning percentage of .618, a 147-91 record.

The Royals could have been playing a majority of their games against NL foes if they had accepted when offered the chance to switch leagues starting in 1998. The Royals said no. The Milwaukee Brewers said yes and haven’t looked back for a second on that decision.

That killed the Royals’ opportunity to become division rivals with the St. Louis Cardinals, a foe that would have generated more interest than any other on the schedule, as evidenced by the big crowds for interleague games.

The Cubs also could have become a hated division rival, and they are so dreadful this season the Royals could have had a realistic shot of finishing ahead of them in the NL Central. Same for the perennially pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates. The Tampa Bay Devil Rays, owners of the second-worst AL record, have a far better present and future than the Royals. That’s not to say all the Royals’ problems would be solved if they were in the National League. They would just have more miserable company.

Facing NL teams doesn’t account for all the Royals’ recent surge. Some of it can be attributed to the Hawthorne Effect, a phenomenon discovered when the productivity of employees was studied as workplace conditions were manipulated. The conclusion reached, more or less, was that change for the sake of change tends to result in an upward spike in productivity. Turn the lights up in the office and productivity increases. Turn the lights down six months later and productivity increases.

The Royals changed general managers May 31, replacing Allard Baird with Dayton Moore. Since roughly a week after that, the Royals have been playing better ball. The Hawthorne Effect suggests that if Baird had replaced Moore, that too would have improved results temporarily.

It’s not as if Moore brought in Bret Saberhagen and Willie Wilson in adding a pitcher and a speedster when he acquired Brandon Duckworth (for cash from the Pirates, who had no use for him) and Joey Gathright (for a pitching prospect from the Devil Rays, who had little use for Gathright).

Here’s a nasty little secret about Duckworth: He doesn’t have it. In 21 innings, Duckworth has allowed 42 runners to reach base by hit or walk. Gathright’s an exciting player to watch run the bases. He’s also a glorified pinch runner, even though he’s off to a hot start at the plate for the Royals. A .251 career slap hitter who strikes out more than twice as often as he draws a walk, Gathright has 18 extra-base hits in 427 at-bats.

Enjoy this little run while it lasts, because once the Hawthorne Effect wears off, the Royals of Moore will turn back into the Royals of Baird.