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Archive for Saturday, December 9, 2006

Panelists give qualified nod to McCain in ‘08

December 9, 2006

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Jill Zuckman was the first to fire off a groan over early forecasting about the 2008 presidential contest.

"Who knows what's going to happen over the next two years," said Zuckman of the Chicago Tribune.

But when pressed, the 10-member panel of political journalists, pollsters and consultants at the Dole Institute of Politics on Friday projected Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) would defeat Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) for the presidency in 2008.

Several panelists gave McCain the advantage for being well-known among a short bench of Republican candidates, including Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, due in part to the re-election defeats in November of two other potential candidates, Sen. George Allen of Virginia and Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

None of the panelists thought former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani would run, partly because of his failure to organize in 2006.

McCain, however, is now the front-runner who doesn't "appear to be particularly joyful about it," the Washington Post's Dan Balz told the 60 people who attended the last of a two-day 2006 Post-Election Conference at the Dole Institute.

But with Iraq a lightening-rod issue that damaged Republicans in last month's midterm elections, Balz said for the straight-talking McCain to change his unpopular position among some voters for an increase in troops would be "fatal."

Peter Brown, of the Polling Institute at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, right, responds to a question during the 2006 Post-Election Conference Friday at the Dole Institute of Politics. The panelist at left is Ray Strother, Democratic strategist with Strother-Duffy-Strother.

Peter Brown, of the Polling Institute at Quinnipiac University in Connecticut, right, responds to a question during the 2006 Post-Election Conference Friday at the Dole Institute of Politics. The panelist at left is Ray Strother, Democratic strategist with Strother-Duffy-Strother.

Among Democrats, the panel looked at the possible Democratic contest among Sen. Clinton, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, and former Democratic vice presidential nominee John Edwards of North Carolina.

Panelists favored Clinton because of her ability to raise money.

But she may also have a disadvantage.

"You think there's Bush fatigue?" said Republican consultant Joseph Gaylor. "Let's bring back Clinton fatigue."

But Obama may also have a problem getting elected because of limited experience, four years in the U.S. Senate and seven in the Illinois state Senate.

"I wonder about those who think he is much more electable than Hillary," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Hamden, Conn.-based Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Brown added that Clinton has an advantage of a larger base in a party where 57 percent of primary voters are women compared with 20 percent African-American.

A Nov. 27 poll by Quinnipiac indicated that unlike Clinton, who has universal recognition, 41 percent of those polled do not know enough about Obama to make a decision.

Political panel at Dole Institute

Obama, whose father was black, could be a "bump in the night," especially in the South, said Democratic strategist Ray Strother.

Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.), who announced this week he would possibly run for president, faces an uphill battle, said Scott Reed, former campaign manager for Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign.

But he could have a conservative impact on party ideas by polling 10 to 15 percent in a primary.

And that would be worth it to him, said Gerald Seib of The Wall Street Journal.

Comments

melott 8 years ago

He has supported creationism teaching in public schools.

He wants more troops for Iraq.

bearded_gnome 8 years ago

a bit like John abscam murtha Merrill?

Maccain cannot be nominated despite all the media buzz. his votes on illegal immigration wrecked it for him.

jonas 8 years ago

gnome: Who do you think has the best chance? I would probably vote for McCain over any dem. I can think of that will run.

If you say Brownback, I'm going to scream. If he gets elected, the only good side is that within the year I'll be moving to Japan.

Christine Pennewell Davis 8 years ago

We have not even hit 07 yet and I am really getting burned out on the whole pres. election stuff. I know how bad of me.

Porter 8 years ago

bennyoats - That Santorum/Harris ticket would be the tops! Think they would have room for George Allen as Secretary of State (first trip is to Macaca-land) and Ted Haggard as Sec of Health and Human Services (..."Kids, you can BUY meth and hookers, just don't USE them!)?

Porter 8 years ago

I almost forgot! They could make Mark Foley the Chair for the Committee on Missing and Exploited Children! oops...

bearded_gnome 8 years ago

Jonas, Brownback has wrecked his chances for nomination on the same set of votes RE illegal immigration. you know, I am one of the conservative base of the republican party...thought very highly of Brownback before those votes. am not too enthused by the crop of Rep potentials so far. guess Romney is in the lead but every time I hear him talk I'm reminded of a used car salesman who got fired for dishonesty.

so, you asked my opinion, I'm not excited about any yet.


guess dems its "Osama" Obama vs. sHrillary? light weight vs. shedevil? every time I hear her speak and I can just about justify Bill's philandering.

beatrice 8 years ago

bearded, care to back up that remarkably cheap shot of likening Obama to "Osama" Bin Laden? Repugnant. A page right out of the Karl Rove playbook. If this is what it takes to be part of the "conservative base," then I'm not surprised at how poorly the Republicans did in November. Further, why not address the issues when trying to tear apart Hillary Clinton. It is one thing to dislike someone's opinions on the issues, and something completely different to just say "I don't like him or her," like politics should just be one big popularity contest like we are address the high school prom king and queen. Until you can address the issues, you will continue to sound just like a guy who hates women in power.

Regarding McCain, he showed himself as the dirtball he is back in '98 when he made a joke at a fundraiser about how "ugly" the teenage Chelsea Clinton was. Dirtball! Anyone willing to stoop to that level to get support won't get mine.

beatrice 8 years ago

Good comeback, Pilgrim. However, how one describes the teenage daughter of what is essentially a co-worker is an issue in my book. (At least that is how I am going to spin that one, but you still get points for calling me on it.) I'm also not appreciative of his all-out support of the Iraq war. Now that is a real issue.

Regarding Hillary, okay, so you are opposed to universal health care -- fair enough. However, I'm sure there are plenty of Americans who don't share the opinion of "I got mine, you go get yours." Some of us do think it a good idea that all people have access to a doctor, no matter what their economic standing. Call us crazy.

bearded_gnome 8 years ago

Oh, Bea, paleeeeeze. the "osama" was in quotes and I was quoting your leader, Teddie Kennedy who once called him "osama obama." listening to Obama its obvious he really should take four years and deepen his experience on the national stage, his answers are often quite callow.

women and power? again, Bea, you're stuck in liberal stereotyping. if Condi were running, I'd volunteer for her campaign. Jean Kirkpatrick just passed, what a lady. just was honest, listening to Hilary speak...I'd rather hear cat claws all four feet across the chalkboard. and, yes, I oppose her radical positions on life, nationalized health care, too. and, finally, she functioned as Bill's enabler. "enabler" is a bit of a psychobabble term but in their circs, is true.

beatrice 8 years ago

Sorry, bearded, but I'm still an American and (unfortunately) George W. Bush still counts as my "leader." I am far from a blind supporter of Kennedy, and have criticized him on this board in the past. However, it is one thing to mangle a name by accident (any fan of W. should appreciate that truth), but another to continue doing so. Obama is, from what I can tell, a good man who does not deserve being called "Osama," although I suspect that is what plays as intelligent conversation on political talk radio. I'm sure we will hear this ugly name with greater frequency, especially if Obama makes a serious run at the White House.

So you aren't opposed to Hillary because she is a woman, you just don't like her voice. Got it. Also because she "enabled" her husband to cheat. Right. It was all her fault. Sure. Obviously the stereotyping was a big mistake on my part. Sorry.

About those "radical" positions Hillary has on life, care to elaborate? Since we already discussed the extreme and apparently insane idea of health care for the masses, I would appreciate it if you start with another topic.

Porter 8 years ago

If you make $5.15/hr, you don't have access to a doctor. More importantly, neither does your kid.

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