Housing, fuel costs strain shoppers

Fresh evidence shows that high energy prices and sagging home values are pinching the main driver of the U.S. economy – the Average Joe’s wallet.

Retailers and economists say many Americans are waiting to buy big-ticket items and cutting back on frills. Homeowners are shelving plans to remodel kitchens. Families are dining out less and tightening their budgets.

“People are taking funds from one area and committing them to another, gasoline and utilities in particular,” said Gregory Miller, chief economist at Sun Trust Bank Inc. He predicts growth in consumer spending will fall from a rate of 2.5 percent to around 1.5 percent during the second half of this year, bringing down overall economic growth at the same rate.

At the same time, homeowners are seeing a key source of their wealth lose value as housing prices fall in some parts of the country.

Psychologically, this creates the opposite of the “wealth effect” that kept upbeat consumers spending as stock prices rose in the late 1990s and real estate boomed after the recession in 2001, said Robert Weagley, chair of the personal financial planning department at the University of Missouri.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that new home sales fell 4.3 percent last month, while the inventory of unsold homes on the market rose to a record high and median home prices slipped between June and July.

At the same time, orders for durable goods such as cars or expensive appliances dropped 2.4 percent in July. That reflects what economists say is consumers’ hesitation to buy big-ticket items in a tighter economic environment.

Several retailers have warned that the change in consumer behavior was hurting sales and have seen their stock prices slide as a result.

More than half of U.S. households said gasoline prices, which have averaged $3 a gallon in some parts of the nation, caused them to cut back on discretionary spending during August, according to a survey released this week by the International Council of Shopping Centers. Miller and others say fuel don’t seem likely to drop significantly.

Meanwhile this week’s housing numbers show that the real estate market is likely to decline further as the number of unsold homes grows, further pressuring prices downward.