Money’s tight.

You’re paying your bills and notice a mistake in the checking account. You actually have more money than you thought.

After smiling, what do you do?

That’s the situation lawmakers will find themselves in when budget experts and economists meet today to make their final estimate on how much tax revenue they think the state will take in for the current fiscal year, which ends June 30.

They also will estimate how much the state will collect in the next fiscal year, which starts July 1.

The number crunchers are officially called the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group, which meets twice a year – November and April – to prepare fiscal projections the Legislature uses for its budget work.

This year, tax collections have surpassed the revenue estimating group’s earlier projections.

“One thing that is for sure, is that what appears to be an under forecast this year is occurring pretty much nationwide,” said Joseph Sicilian, chairman of the Kansas University economics department, and a member of the revenue estimating group. “It’s happening in most states and the federal government.”

Of the 41 states that have revised their revenue forecasts since the start of the fiscal year, collections are exceeding expectations in 18, on target in another 18 and below forecasted levels in one, the National Conference of State Legislatures reported.

Kansas is one of those where revenues are exceeding forecasts.

From July 1 through March, tax receipts were $139 million, or 4 percent, higher than the November estimate of $3.474 billion.

In addition, tax receipts for the current fiscal year through March are $367.1 million or 11.3 percent more than tax receipts for the same period in the previous fiscal year.

“Revenue has been flowing in at a very healthy pace,” said Duane Goossen, who is Gov. Kathleen Sebelius’ budget director and also a member of the estimating group.

“Given the trend, they are likely to be higher numbers,” he said of the new revenue estimate that will be released today.

The estimates will affect what lawmakers do when they return for the wrapup session April 26.

The major piece left out of the state budget puzzle is school finance.

Lawmakers have been struggling to come up with a plan that complies with a Kansas Supreme Court order to adequately fund public schools.

The House has adopted a three-year $630 million increase, but hasn’t said how it would fund the measure. Proponents of expanded casino gambling, including Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, say gambling revenue could pay for the plan.

But as revenues continue to increase, there becomes less pressure to seek new revenue sources.

Number crunchers

The Consensus Revenue Estimating Group meets at 9:30 a.m. today to revise for the Legislature how much the state is expected to collect this fiscal year and the next.

The group includes five members of the governor’s budget division, five members of the Kansas Legislative Research Department, three members of the Kansas Department of Revenue, and one economist each from Kansas, Kansas State and Wichita State universities.