If you believe in numbers, then Tony Stewart is a clear favorite to begin a run to his second championship as the Chase for the Nextel Cup opens Sunday at New Hampshire International Speedway.

That is, of course, unless you look at a different set of numbers, which clearly establishes Jimmie Johnson as a favorite.

Or, if you want to look at recent history only, Greg Biffle is the obvious pick.

Kurt Busch, however, already knows the formula for success in the Chase, proving that last year when he became the first to win a championship under this format.

If momentum has anything to do with it, of course, you’ve got to go with Matt Kenseth. Consistency? Believe it or not, that’s where the signs point to Rusty Wallace. If you’re the sentimental sort, it’s hard to argue with Mark Martin as your choice.

Carl Edwards is this year’s breakout story in NASCAR’s top series. For those who like to root for underdogs, you’ve got Jeremy Mayfield. And Ryan Newman is irony’s candidate – he’s steadfastly said he’s not a fan of the Chase format but he’s been the guy who’s picked up the most points from it in each of its first two seasons.

Based on the Chase drivers’ career records Stewart and Johnson would figure to have a heck of a fight to the finish.

At the 10 tracks that make up the Chase, Stewart and Johnson both have career average finishes of just under 12th.

Stewart’s best tracks, statistically, in the Chase are Dover, Kansas and Homestead-Miami. Johnson’s top career finishes are at Texas, Charlotte and Martinsville.

Johnson’s numbers would be significantly better if they didn’t include his 39th-place finish at Charlotte in his Nextel Cup debut in October 2001.

Since then, he’s finished no worse than seventh at Lowe’s Motor Speedway and has won the past three and four of the past five there.

Wallace has been particularly solid at Dover, where he’s in the top 15 in nine of his past 11 starts; at Kansas, where he has run fourth, third, ninth and 18th; at Martinsville; and at Texas, where he has finished no worse than 14th in his past eight tries.

Busch has finished first, first and second in the past three races at New Hampshire, won at Phoenix earlier this year and has six top-10 finishes in nine races at Talladega. Martin has finished first, second and third in his past three races at Dover. Edwards has won and finished third in his two starts at Atlanta and was third in his first Cup race at Charlotte earlier this year.

Kenseth has seven top-10 finishes in his past eight races at New Hampshire.

Mayfield has finished ninth, fifth and third in the past three years at Kansas, a track where Biffle won last year. Newman has three victories and six top-10 finishes in seven races at Dover, three top 10s in four tries at Kansas and four straight top-10 finishes at Martinsville.

Based on his career record alone, Biffle would seem to be as much of a long shot as Mayfield or anyone else in the Chase. Biffle’s career average finish at Chase tracks is 20th, and only at Atlanta, where it’s 13.6, is it better than 15th.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Biffle finished 20th and 17th in points in his first two full seasons in the Cup series. He’s already got more top-five finishes this year than he’d had in 76 career starts coming into this year, nine to seven, and he has doubled his career total of top-10 finishes to 28.

Add the points the Chase contenders scored in their most recent races at the tracks that’ll determine this year’s champion, either earlier this season or last year at Kansas and Homestead, to the totals they take into Sunday’s race, and Biffle emerges as a clear favorite.

So what’s going to happen over the next 10 weeks?

Come on, who knows?