Miami ? It’s time to get ready for hurricane season — and it could be another bad one.

With only two weeks remaining before it officially starts all over again, government researchers on Monday predicted six months of hurricane activity nearly equal in scope and danger to last year’s busy season.

The forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: 12 to 15 tropical storms that grow into seven to nine hurricanes. Three to five of those hurricanes are likely to become intense, with winds above 110 mph.

Though no one can predict in advance where hurricanes will strike, government experts said they expect two or three to hit the United States this year. Nearly 50 million Americans live in coastal counties along the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.

“We want every individual, every family, every business and every community to have that hurricane plan in place before the hurricane gets here,” said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade County, Fla. “The battle against the hurricane is won now, not when the hurricane comes knocking on your door.”

The government’s forecast falls into the same range as one already issued by private expert William Gray, a university professor who predicted 13 named storms that turn into seven hurricanes, three of them intense.

“Our experts have a very high level of confidence in this forecast,” NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher said during a news conference in Bay St. Louis, Miss.

One reason is that we are in the middle of a long period of above-average hurricane activity, a phenomenon based on cyclical changes in ocean currents and the atmosphere. In addition, surface temperatures in the Atlantic are unusually warm, which can nurture storm development.

Last year, 15 named storms developed in the Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Nine became hurricanes, six of them intense — in both cases, slightly above the preseason forecast.

Four of those hurricanes — Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne — struck Florida. Experts call that clustering of storms a historical oddity that is unlikely to be repeated, but they say Floridians must remain alert and prepared as a new season approaches.

A poll released last week suggested that many residents of Florida and other coastal states had not yet learned that lesson.

“We’re beyond the point of saying ‘if a hurricane hits,”‘ said Gov. Jeb Bush. “We need to prepare for when they hit. We are in a period of time when there’s going to be more hurricanes. We need to make sure individuals in our state and their families are better prepared — and there’s time to do it now.”

Mike Brown, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, noted that this was National Hurricane Preparedness Week and said he was “astonished” by the poll.

“I urge all of you in these hurricane-prone areas to do what you can now to prepare,” he said.

The season begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.