Philadelphia ? Hang on to your asterisk.

You know, the one you were planning to place next to Barry Bonds’ career home-run record? You may not need it after all.

With apologies to the improbably successful Chicago White Sox and improbably unsuccessful New York Yankees, the most intriguing story in baseball remains the man stuck on 703 career homers. Is it fluid on the knee or something more sinister that has Bonds sitting at home in the second month of the season?

Put it this way: Which is more likely at this moment — Bonds’ returning to action as if all is well, or Bonds’ sitting out for an extended period because of his knee troubles and then eventually announcing his retirement?

Both scenarios seem about equally possible right now. Either way, Bonds no longer seems like such a sure thing to catch and pass Hank Aaron for the all-time home-run record.

Bonds, who will turn 41 on July 24, needs 52 home runs to tie Aaron at 755. John Donovan of SI.com came up with numbers that show exactly what Bonds is up against.

According to Donovan, Ted Williams hit 29 home runs the year he turned 41. That’s the most ever by a player 41 or older.

The most for a 42-year-old? Carlton Fisk hit 18 in 1990. So, if Bonds matched the most homers ever hit at his age in the next two seasons, he would finish 2006 with 750.

He wouldn’t begin his run at Aaron until the beginning of the 2007 season.

Here’s where the logic gets a little tricky, though.

What has set Bonds apart the last few years is the fact that his production has shot up at a point in his career when most players begin to fade. He has hit more than 250 home runs after turning 35.

But then, there is accumulating evidence that his late-career power surge was fueled by the use of substances now banned by major league baseball — substances that baseball now is testing for. (In his reported grand jury testimony, Bonds said he used steroids unwittingly).

If Bonds’ recent accomplishments really were superhuman — as in beyond what a human being is naturally capable of doing — what does that mean for his future? Will he be subject to the decline in power that age has inflicted on every other home-run hitter in the history of the game? If so, can he still catch Aaron?

Of course, all these questions are academic if knee problems — or any other problems — prevent Bonds from returning to the field. As with most things Bonds, the situation isn’t as simple as it first appears.

The New York Daily News reported during the weekend that major league baseball was conducting an investigation of Bonds.

It would be quite a spectacle, one that no one associated with baseball can hope to see play out. Bonds would have to pass Babe Ruth, creating one wave of scrutiny and doubt, before making his final run at Aaron. It would be an ongoing soap opera that could dominate the next three baseball seasons.

Imagine home run No. 756. Would there be boos or cheers? Would baseball be glorified or disgraced? Would Aaron dignify the occasion with his presence, or would he stay away?

There are 53 homers between here and there. There are 53 homers that Bonds, because of fluid in his knee or something more, has not yet begun to hit.