Bin Laden remains a threat

President Bush’s blunt talk about Osama bin Laden and potential new al-Qaida attacks may have inspired worries, but it also has renewed awareness of the terrorism threat.

If the United States is in for a period of heightened terrorism activity, which would make sense, attacks could come more frequently against U.S. targets anywhere — including here at home. Americans should gird themselves for those possibilities to avoid the discomfort of undue surprise, as they experienced on Sept. 11, 2001.

It’s not that bin Laden and al-Qaida have twiddled their thumbs since that tragedy. Actually, they have hatched any number of schemes to harm the United States and its interests. Authorities in the United States and in friendly countries have simply done the better job, stopping the vast majority of plots before they could deliver death and disaster.

More compels bin Laden toward greater activism, though, than simply a desire to win additional battles in his organization’s response to the war against terrorism. Time threatens to diminish his carefully constructed plans, as well as his legacy. Although he feigns humility and cloaks himself — falsely — in religion, bin Laden craves the limelight and revels in the cult of personality he has created. But the myth can stay afloat on the back of past activities for only so long.

Moreover, many of the issues bin Laden purports to embrace in the Middle East — from Palestinian self-determination to replacing “illegitimate” leaders in Arab countries — are inching toward resolution without any input from him. Bin Laden despised Saddam Hussein, but he equally dislikes the free and open system emerging in the new Iraq. The current phase of peacemaking between Israel and the Arabs, which could finally settle the Palestinian question, also does not suit him. Nor do recent signals from Egypt’s government that hold out the possibility of direct presidential elections.

To the extent that those and other reform initiatives succeed, bin Laden’s message loses appeal. He knows that, and he’s eager to demonstrate to his loyal followers — and future prospects — that he remains a potent player and capable of keeping the United States off balance. He also must take pains to avoid miscalculating, especially in launching attacks such as those of 9-11 that turned global public opinion against him and signaled the end of his puppet master’s role in Afghanistan.

Such considerations would help explain reports that bin Laden has urged his main ally in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, to form a group to conduct attacks in other places, including the United States.

Other discussions about possible terrorist threats — from a suspected plot to target New York’s Grand Central Terminal to an Interpol conference in France that warned about the growing bioterrorism danger — provide additional reminders of al-Qaida’s ongoing capabilities and presence.

In light of that danger, I commend Bush for underscoring his commitment to hunt bin Laden down. Only a relentless, comprehensive global effort by the United States, in word and in deed, will keep the terrorism scourge at bay.

— John C. Bersia is an editorial writer for the Orlando Sentinel and a professor at the University of Central Florida.