I’ve always been a bit perplexed that the media spend so much time tracking the exploits of Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania groundhog that purportedly forecasts the weather each February. Obviously, Phil’s activities are nothing more than a media event — something contrived for publicity and sustained by this false newsworthiness. If the media would just leave it alone, I say each Groundhog Day, the whole thing would disappear.

Then I learned that the little rodent has a Web site (www.punxsutawneyphil.com), so he can create a buzz all on his own. Next thing you know, he’ll have a blog and will be arguing about the weather on Fox News.

My cynicism about the whole Punxsutawney Phil thing undoubtedly stems from the fact that by February, I’m looking at the weather map from the perspective of a vegetable gardener who is tracking the transition from winter to spring for very practical purposes. Whether Phil came out of his hole on Groundhog Day is of no concern to people of my ilk.

The only thing vegetable gardeners really care about is when the last killing frost will arrive. This is an elusive date that happens on average in this part of the state around April 20. For the purposes of drawing up a planting schedule, that date is a guideline, particularly for warm-weather crops like tomatoes. People who start seeds indoors often count backward from that date, and those who set out frost-sensitive plants are prudent to wait until then to do it.

So when it comes to gardening, the groundhog is an unreliable source of information. Not only is he no meteorologist, but I suspect that all groundhogs have ulterior motives. Let’s just say that if one showed up near my garden, I’d fear for my lettuce.

I believe a better predictor of what the spring gardening season will be like is to be found in a pair of weather statistics, namely year-to-date precipitation and normal year-to-date precipitation. This year, the outlook is good.

For starters, we had a relatively wet growing season last year, which was a relief after the drought year that came before. Last year’s rains, which often came in the form of slow, soaking showers, helped to replenish the sub-soil moisture that had been depleted.

Our rain and snowfall this year is about double that of the normal level. Before it started raining Saturday, we had received nearly 4 inches of precipitation already this year, more than twice the usual amount. While that’s no indicator of how wet or dry the summer will be, the short-term prospects are outstanding. At the very least, what gets planted in the vegetable garden this spring will get off to a moist and healthy start.

The other weather variable in this part of the country is the wind. Particularly for early crops that grow above ground, such as broccoli and greens, the stout winds that blow through here in March and April can be deadly. While some sort of wind protection may still be necessary, depending on the location of a garden, the good news is that plants growing in thoroughly moistened soil will develop stronger roots and be better able to withstand a constant battering by spring gusts.

So, with all of these factors going for us, I’m predicting 2005 will be one of the best gardening seasons in recent memory. I’d like to see the groundhog match that.