For the past two seasons, the Jacksonville Jaguars have split with Indianapolis. They’ll go for another split at home Sunday, this time hoping to end the Colts’ run toward an unbeaten season.

So it’s more than jargon when Tony Dungy says of Jacksonville:

“They’ve played us as well as anybody in the division, and they’re as hot as anybody. We always play close games, so we’re expecting a great game with a lot of intensity. It should be great for the NFL.”

True – the Jaguars have a legitimate sellout for only the second time in their 11-season existence.

The Jags are 9-3 en route to an AFC wild-card playoff spot. After this game, they play San Francisco, Houston and Tennessee, a combined 6-30. They also played the Colts as well as anyone has this year, losing 10-3 at the RCA Dome in the second week of the season.

On the other hand, they will be without Byron Leftwich and perhaps Fred Taylor. That doesn’t kill them – David Garrard is a decent quarterback, and Greg Jones has done well filling in for Taylor, who seems to be hurt as often as he’s healthy.

The Colts are favored by 71â2 points.

Motivation?

Jacksonville quarterback David Garrard (9) celebrates with wide receiver Jimmy Smith after the two connected on a 12-yard touchdown in the third quarter against Cleveland. The Jaguars, shown Sunday during their 20-14 victory over the Browns in Cleveland, will attempt to end the Indianapolis Colts' perfect season Sunday in Jacksonville, Fla.

A victory clinches the AFC South. But they’ll win that anyway and they’ll almost surely get home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Yes, there is history to be considered, but somewhere in the back of Dungy’s brain there has to be a little bird saying: “15-1 or 14-2 isn’t bad either, and then we can rest people.”

Still, division rivalries being what they are, this isn’t the spot for a loss.

COLTS, 18-9

Tampa Bay (plus 5) at Carolina

A win here could just about wrap up the South for Carolina, which might be the NFC’s best team. Pressuring Tampa QB Chris Simms will help.

PANTHERS, 20-12

Chicago (plus 4) at Pittsburgh

The Steelers are getting desperate and should be able to pressure Kyle Orton and get a defensive TD against a team that specializes in them. Even with Ben Roethlisberger’s banged-up thumb.

STEELERS, 20-9

Kansas City (plus 3) at Dallas

Pressuring Drew Bledsoe is the way to beat the Cowboys. Jared Allen can do that, but he doesn’t have much help.

COWBOYS, 24-20

New York Giants (minus 8) at Philadelphia

The Giants opened as 31â2-point favorites. Then all those Eagles went down and …

GIANTS, 27-9

New England (minus 3) at Buffalo

The Bills are as big a disgrace as the Lions.

PATRIOTS, 24-19

New Orleans (plus 10) at Atlanta (Monday night)

Maybe the Saints will feel more at home in a dome.

FALCONS, 31-20

San Francisco (plus 16) at Seattle

The 49ers got within a 2-point conversion of Seattle at home. Not here.

SEAHAWKS, 37-2

St. Louis (plus 7) at Minnesota

The Vikings might not lose again.

VIKINGS, 33-21

Miami (plus 131â2) at San Diego

No miracle comebacks this week.

CHARGERS, 31-20

Cleveland (plus 12) at Cincinnati

The Bengals roll toward the division title.

BENGALS, 31-16

Baltimore (plus 14) at Denver

Three easy games is why the Broncos will win the West.

BRONCOS, 24-6

Washington (minus 31â2) at Arizona

This easy game is why the Redskins stay alive.

REDSKINS, 20-10

Detroit (plus 51â2) at Green Bay

Favre over Garcia.

PACKERS, 22-20

Oakland (minus 3) at New York Jets

Tuiasosopo at Bollinger?

RAIDERS, 9-5

Houston (plus 61â2) at Tennessee

The Texans plunge on toward Reggie Bush.

TITANS, 11-8

LAST WEEK: 11-5 (spread) 13-3 (straight up).

SEASON: 87-102-3 (spread) 129-63 (straight up).