Oklahoma has been monstrous, as expected. Texas has been terrific, as expected. Texas Tech threw the football all over the place, as expected.

Yet Big 12 Conference football has been full of surprises this autumn.

Iowa State has to top the list. Last year, the Cyclones were the league’s worst team at 0-8. Now ISU is on the brink of capturing the North Division title. All the Cyclones have to do is knock off Missouri on Saturday, and the tanked Tigers are in a dead heat with Kansas State for the league’s biggest disappointment.

Folks in Iowa may not like this comparison, but the Cyclones are basically Kansas with a more favorable schedule and better luck.

Both Iowa State and Kansas were top-heavy defensively. ISU ranks 33rd nationally in total defense while KU is 41st. On offense, the Cyclones rank 99th, just one notch above the Jayhawks. That’s virtually a wash.

Kansas and Iowa State are as close to being the same as any two teams in the conference, yet Kansas finished with a 4-7 record while Iowa State is 6-4 heading into its home finale against a Missouri team that just wants to be put out of its misery.

Iowa State has had an easier schedule than Kansas — the Cyclones, for instance, haven’t had to play Texas, Oklahoma or Texas Tech — and coach Dan McCarney’s team won more close games than the Jayhawks did.

While Kansas played six games decided by six points or less and won only one (31-28 over Kansas State), Iowa State has been in six games decided by seven points or less and won four of them.

Down the stretch, Iowa State was lucky and Kansas wasn’t. The Cyclones won back-to-back games over Baylor (26-25) and Kansas (13-7) because Brent Curvey, a 300-pound defensive lineman, was in the right spot at the right time to return quarterback fumbles for touchdowns.

While Iowa State was on a late season roll that included a seven-point home victory over Nebraska, the Jayhawks were shooting craps. KU coach Mark Mangino lost three starting quarterbacks to injury in three consecutive games. Most coaches don’t lose three starting quarterbacks in a career, much less three games.

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Here’s another way to look at it: How many coaches have started four different QBs in four straight games? Mangino did. He opened with Adam Barmann against Iowa State, Jason Swanson against Colorado, John Nielsen against Texas and Brian Luke against Missouri.

That streak would have ended, incidentally, if KU had a 12th game on its schedule like the last two years because Luke survived the entire season finale against Missouri unscathed. Or at least without serious injury. He admitted he had his breath knocked out once, but was able to continue.

Even with four different starting quarterbacks, Kansas was competitive during that fateful stretch. The Jayhawks lost by six, as noted, to Iowa State, then fell at home to Colorado by nine (30-21), took Texas to the wire before falling 27-23 in the fabled “dollar signs” game, then throttled the toothless Tabbies on Saturday in Columbia, Mo., by a 31-14 count.

Once upon a time, a long-forgotten sports pundit remarked that sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. However, another sage — I believe it was a baseball manager named Leo Durocher — postulated that luck is the residue of design.

If you ask me, Kansas fits more into the former category because luck becomes much more of a factor in a relatively short 11-game season.

I can’t wait for next summer when the coaches and the media have to make their preseason predictions for the 2005 season. Nobody is going to have a clue who’ll win the North Division. If Iowa State can win it this year, anybody can win it next year.

That includes Kansas. The Jayhawks will lose only three starters from its rejuvenated defense — tackle Travis Watkins, end David McMillan and strong safety Tony Stubbs — and if Mangino can upgrade his offense, mainly at quarterback, running back and in the line, Kansas could be next year’s Iowa State.

All things considered, KU’s design is fine, but a little more good fortune sure wouldn’t hurt.