Business investments boost growth
GDP up 4.4 percent for first quarter; analysts expect trend to continue
Washington ? The economy grew slightly faster than previously thought in the first quarter of this year, fresh evidence of momentum heading into the summer. Higher energy prices, though, could weigh a bit on future growth, some analysts said.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product from January through March increased at a 4.4 percent annual rate. That was an improvement from both the 4.2 percent pace first estimated for the quarter a month ago and the 4.1 percent growth rate registered in the final quarter of 2003.
The GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States. While the latest reading was just shy of the 4.5 percent pace that some analysts were forecasting, it nevertheless represented a solid performance.
Although consumers and the federal government did their part to support the economy in the first quarter, economists said the better reading on GDP mostly reflected stronger investment by businesses to build up inventories.
“Businesses stepped up to the plate. … They look to be firmly back in the game, which bodes well for future growth,” said Bill Cheney, chief economist at MFC Global Investment Management.
Analysts expect the economy to grow at a healthy pace in the current April-to-June quarter. But growth, they said, could be held back by higher energy costs, which could crimp consumer and business spending.
“Higher energy prices aren’t preventing us from having good growth, but the gain would be stronger without that impact,” said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Banc of America Capital Management.
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, is among the economists forecasting second-quarter growth to be in the range of a 3.5 percent to 4 percent pace. Reaser, however, estimates it will clock in from a 4 percent to 4.5 percent pace.
Under either of the forecasts, growth would be sufficient to keep the economy on track for a projected 4.7 percent gain in GDP for all of 2004, which would mark the strongest showing in 20 years, analysts said.