Carlisle, Pa. ? Operation Bushie Freedom is in effect.

The Republican “war president” kicked it off Monday night at the U.S. Army War College in heavily Republican central Pennsylvania. It’s an effort to save his presidency.

His speech, the first of several leading up to the scheduled June 30 hand-off of authority and sovereignty in Iraq, was billed as a part of an effort to assure the American people and the world the president has a “plan” to fix what can only be viewed as an occupation gone sour.

It comes in an election year with his approval ratings at an all-time low amid weeks of bad news from the war: a mounting casualty toll, the assassination of the president of the Iraqi Governing Council, prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib and the public beheading of American civilian Nick Berg.

Still, the president said “we must keep our focus,” and offered a glass-half-full, we’re-making-progress message.

Why Pennsylvania? A friendly place with an audience loyal to the commander in chief. As local Republican Congressman Todd Platts put it, “Support for the president is rock-solid in central Pennsylvania.” And he was well received.

He spoke for 31 minutes in a gymnasium filled with 400 uniformed officers from dozens of nations, the future of worldwide military leadership, seated on folding chairs. Up in the balcony, way in the back, Andrew Card, Karl Rove and Condi Rice sat and watched over a railing. It was a serious speech at a critical time, and it showed.

There was no usual Bush joshing, no sense of a political rally, no recognizing friends or pointing out heroes — nothing but business. The main themes? Winning in Iraq is central to defeating terrorism, and Iraqis can and will take charge of their country.

He outlined broad steps to provide more security, get more international support and rebuild the country. These are themes he needs to sell to American voters and the Arab world.

At this stage, given how we got into this war, given its course to date, given uncertainties ahead, it is, at best, a hard sell. He cited, for example, the need to better train Iraqis to police and protect themselves, which begs the question why wasn’t that done in the first place? He said he would tear down Abu Ghraib prison “as a fitting symbol” of a new beginning, which makes one wonder why that wasn’t done when we tore down the statue of Saddam?

And there was little solace for those hoping for a change of direction or a sense that U.S. troops soon will be home, or even a timetable of when that might happen. While sticking to his call for free national elections no later than January and a new constitution and permanent government by the end of next year, he also said he’s keeping 138,000 U.S. troops in place “as long as necessary,” and if more troops are needed, “I will send them.”

He warned things likely will get worse before they get better, with increased violence expected before and after the June 30 hand-off. “There are difficult days ahead, and the way forward may sometimes appear chaotic,” the president said, “but terrorists will not determine the future of Iraq.”

What he didn’t say is his presidency also faces difficult days. And its future depends on how well Operation Bushie Freedom works, or plays.

John Baer is a columnist for the Philadelphia Daily News. His e-mail address is baerj@phillynews.com.