Analysts expect gasoline prices to climb

Some predict cost will reach $3 a gallon

Oil and gasoline prices reached new highs Monday, sparking warnings that this may be the most expensive summer ever at the pump.

Shrugging off news that more oil was on the way, traders in New York sent the cost of benchmark crude up $1.79 to a record close of $41.72 a barrel, erasing hopes that oil futures would settle back below the $40 mark anytime soon.

On Friday, crude oil fell below $40 in New York for the first time in nearly two weeks after Saudi Arabia promised to pump more oil to ease prices. Experts had hoped oil prices would fall farther Monday because of a weekend pledge from Saudi Arabia to increase production even more, but word of new supply glitches intervened.

“I think had we not had any more bad news, the Saudi oil would have been enough to calm the waters,” said Phil Flynn, senior energy trader for Alaron Trading Corp. “But right now, oil is really outside of anyone’s control. This market is going to be totally headline driven.”

The news was no better for gasoline. In fact, a growing number of market watchers have begun predicting $3-a-gallon prices this summer — and that’s for self-serve regular, not premium-grade fuel.

Regular gasoline for June delivery closed Monday at a record $1.458 a gallon, up 4.1 cents on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Retail prices continued their relentless rise.

The nationwide average jumped 4.7 cents to $2.064 a gallon — a record high, according to Monday’s survey by the Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department.

Adjusted for inflation, both the oil and gasoline prices are lower than they were in the early 1980s. That, however, might be little comfort to consumers readying themselves for the Memorial Day weekend, the traditional kick-off to the summer driving season and one of the nation’s most popular holidays for road trips.

Nearly 31 million U.S. travelers are expected to hit the road for trips of 50 miles or more over the coming weekend, up 3.4 percent from a year ago, AAA said.

The operators of a gas station in Conyers, Ga., make light of high gasoline prices on the sign in front of their store. The message was posted Sunday. The nationwide average price of gasoline was .06 a gallon Monday. Analysts predict gasoline prices will continue to climb into the Memorial Day weekend.

Analysts say motorists likely will be paying even more for gasoline by the start of their weekend trips, and the outlook for the entire summer isn’t much better. “We’re going to see prices continue to rise through Memorial Day. … We could easily add another nickel or dime very quickly,” Flynn said. “I think California is destined to pay $3 a gallon at some point this summer.”

Flynn and others say the record-high cost of both oil and gasoline reflected extra-tight supplies that have been stretched by unexpectedly strong demand worldwide, fueled mostly by the growing economies in the United States and China.

“We’re facing some very challenging times,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, senior energy adviser at Rice University’s Baker Institute.

“Every molecule that can be produced is being produced, and it’s not enough.”