Analysts expect rate hike in June

Analysts expect rate hike in June

? Inflation appears to be stirring from its hibernation. Consumer prices are advancing in the first four months of this year at a pace twice as fast as the increase for all of 2003.

That in turn is increasing chances that the Federal Reserve will boost interest rates next month, according to a number of analysts. They point to a string of economic reports, from sizable gains in the nation’s payrolls to brisk manufacturing activity, that paint a picture of an economic resurgence that is beginning to fan inflation.

“The economy is just taking off and is taking inflation with it,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com. “I think it is just too much for the Fed to ignore, and they will have to tighten policy in June.”

From January to April, consumer prices rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.4 percent, compared with a 1.9 percent increase for last year, the Labor Department reported Friday.

This year’s pickup has been led by sharply higher energy prices, especially for gasoline.

The core rate of inflation, from which energy and food prices are excluded, has risen so far this year by 3 percent, outpacing the 1.1 percent rise for 2003.

In April, consumer prices rose by 0.2 percent, while core prices went up 0.3 percent. Energy prices, which increased 0.1 percent in April, soared in the first four months of this year at annual rate of 28.3 percent. Prices for gasoline, fuel oil and natural gas were up sharply during the period.

An increasing number of economists now believe the Fed will begin raising rates at its next meeting June 29-30, saying Friday’s inflation report, along with a recent batch of mostly strong economic data, would justify such a move.