Analysis: Candidates struggle to find election ‘vision’

? Democrats fear John Kerry is tracing the errant path of Al Gore, who lost focus on a forward-looking vision for America because he set his sights too low — on the daily tactics of the 2000 campaign.

Republicans worry that President Bush’s re-election hopes hinge on past successes of cutting taxes and responding to the Sept. 11 attacks, as well as future developments that are out of his control, such as an economic recovery and reconstruction of Iraq.

Neither candidate has much of a message beyond criticizing the other guy. Seven months before Election Day, Bush and Kerry are trying to figure out “the vision thing,” a phrase used by the president’s father to describe what his failed 1992 re-election campaign lacked.

“Less than 30 percent of the people know who Kerry is, so it’s critical for him to spell that out. But there is nothing that he has articulated in the primaries and so far in the campaign to identify who he is, other than anything-but-Bush,” said Tony Coelho, chairman of Gore’s campaign.

“And the president is basically talking about yesterday — 9-11, and a couple of other things he’s done in the last three years,” Coelho said.

The few long-term issues Bush has discussed are either contentious (Social Security overhaul), rarely mentioned (mission to Mars) or designed to keep conservative voters energized (a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage).

Bush is counting on terrorism to dominate the election, even amid doubts about how he handled U.S. intelligence before and after Sept. 11. Kerry wants voters to focus on joblessness, even as the economy shows signs of recovery.

“Bush has no choice but to play to his base, which was a calculated decision, since he has no domestic agenda and has squandered every opportunity to even create the impression of reaching beyond his core constituency,” said John Weaver, a consultant for Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a Bush rival for the 2000 GOP nomination for president.

“Kerry, on the other hand, would seem to have the luxury of a united Democrat base, but still hasn’t found his general election message legs yet,” Weaver said.

While Kerry wrapped up a weeklong vacation in Idaho, his campaign released a commercial casting the four-term Massachusetts senator as a decorated Vietnam veteran who would fight for voters as president.

On Friday, Kerry released the first plank of his economic plan, promising to eliminate tax subsidies that push jobs overseas and ease the corporate tax burden. The combination was designed to undercut Bush’s claim that Kerry is a knee-jerk liberal.

It was a tiny step to the center, a rarity in an election year that so far has played to the most conservative and most liberal of voters.

Weaver said both candidates seemed wary about reaching to voters in the middle. “The one with the most compelling message and the courage to break out of their base will win,” he said.

Still, many Republicans insist it is too early for Bush to go public with a second-term agenda. A few even say that is unnecessary because a wartime election will swing to the commander in chief.

“Don’t worry about what he’ll do in the next four years, just look at what he’s done in the past — keep the country strong, keep the military strong. And contrast that with Kerry,” said Chuck Yob, a member of the Republican National Committee from Michigan.

Ron Klain, a longtime Gore adviser, praised Kerry’s message-building work last week. He said Kerry must have learned from Gore that tactical victories are not enough.

“If you went back and scored every news cycle, I’d hazard to guess that we won 60 percent of the days in that campaign, but Bush pushed a few big ideas and didn’t sweat every single news cycle,” Klain said.

Coelho said Bush was “Mr. Sunshine” and Gore was “Mr. Negative” in 2000. This year, both Kerry and Bush run the risk of being too negative.

“Instead of getting into the gutter with Bush, he should let surrogates go on the attack while he tells people, ‘This is who I am. This is what I’ll do for you,'” Coelho said of Kerry.

A recent Associated Press-Ipsos poll showed voters trust Kerry and Bush equally. The president’s once-soaring rankings on trust have slipped after no weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq.