Brett Mosiman spends most of his time trying to think like someone else. That’s the life of a music promoter.

“The job of a promoter is to connect bands with fans,” Mosiman said. “That means you have to figure out what everybody’s tastes are. One of the things you have to figure out is that you can’t just promote bands that you want to hear because not everybody has your tastes. You can get slaughtered that way.”

Mosiman has been in the business since 1989 when he formed Lawrence-based Pipeline Productions, about four years after he bought The Bottleneck, a now storied bar and music venue in downtown.

The bar helps him keep in touch with what Lawrence’s young crowd wants. He said he talked to the college students who work for him about their tastes. He also spends a lot of time watching MTV, listening to the radio and visiting record stores to determine which new sounds will be hip and which will be nothing more than hype.

“It is basically all a bunch of nonscientific stuff,” Mosiman said. “It is like golf. The more you do it, the less you know sometimes. You are just forever being amazed at what works and what doesn’t.”

Being out of step with what’s cool comes at a pretty steep price.

Jeff Fortier, owner of Lawrence-based Renegade Productions, has been in the promoting business since 1989 when he began booking bands at the Outhouse, a rural Lawrence club east of Lawrence.

“Being a promoter can be better than anything else in the world, or it can be the worst thing in the world, and it can be that way on back-to-back nights,” said Fortier, who estimated about 40 percent of his shows fail financially. “The thing you learn is that money comes and money goes. In this business, every time you have a dollar, you should plan on losing it.”

Mosiman said the number of people wanting to jump into the live music business in Lawrence seemed to be increasing. He estimated that there are about 15 bars in town that book bands.

“It kind of goes through phases,” Mosiman said. “Five years ago, most places went to DJs. I think most people who try it (live music) will be out of it sooner than later. I’m still not sure supply isn’t greater than demand. You know, you pay bands and nobody shows up, it is a quick exit. It is a very risky business.”

Promoters were reluctant to talk about the financial details of their business, but most said profit margins were thin.

“It has its days, but long term, it isn’t a cash cow,” Fortier said.

Fortier said Lawrence was still a place for the music industry to keep its eye on, though.

He’s a co-owner of the recently opened Gaslight, a small bar and music venue in North Lawrence. He thinks small music venues might be the next trend in the Lawrence music scene.

“I think these small venues will carry the torch for the industry,” Fortier said. “They’re the ones that give the local musicians a chance, and that’s what people are wanting right now.”

At least Fortier thinks that is what the public wants. He’s the first to admit that figuring that out is tricky business.

“All I really know is that the industry is definitely in a transition period in this town,” Fortier said. “It is probably too early to tell where that transition is going to lead us. But I know were not in a holding pattern anymore. That should make it fun.”