Philadelphia ? The vast majority of black voters will take one of two paths in the presidential election this fall: Vote for John Kerry or stay home.

Too much of the latter could derail Kerry’s candidacy, say political analysts and NAACP delegates gathered here, detecting a severe lack of enthusiasm for the Massachusetts senator among the black electorate.

“To get people out to vote, they have to have something to vote for,” said Monroe Woods, a delegate who works as a management consultant near Nashville, Tenn. “Yes, the anti-Bush feeling is enormous, and I hear people talking about the need to get Bush out of office. But people rarely mention Kerry’s name.”

Critics say Kerry is viewed by many blacks as a rich elitist far removed from the lifestyle endured on the South Side of Chicago, Dallas’ southern sector or the rural enclaves of the South. What’s more, for most of the campaign, the seemingly aloof Kerry has failed to tout an agenda for black America and has been criticized for not having more minorities in high-level campaign posts.

The Kerry campaign, which rejects the criticism, is nonetheless working on the problem. Kerry will speak today to the 8,000 delegates gathered here for the convention of the NAACP, the nation’s oldest and largest civil-rights organization. Democrats have chosen Barack Obama, a black U.S. Senate candidate from Illinois, to give the keynote address at Kerry’s nominating convention. And Wednesday, the campaign rolled out new television ads designed to woo black voters.

“John Kerry understands that African-American voters will have a significant impact on this election,” said campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill.

Kerry will win most black voters’ support simply because of their hostility toward President Bush — who in 2000 got just 9 percent, the lowest percentage of black votes since Ronald Reagan in 1980. But in an election that’s expected to be a squeaker, analysts say, neither candidate can afford to leave potential votes sitting on the front porch.

Since the dismal showing in 2000, Bush and fellow Republicans have worked to win more minority voters. The president, some say, wins credit for appointing blacks to two of the highest posts in his administration — Secretary of State Colin Powell and National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. More recently, the Republican National Committee sent Texas Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams, boxing promoter Don King and former Miss America Erika Harold on a multicity tour to recruit more blacks into the party.

But the animosity may be overwhelming. Blacks opposed the war with Iraq more intensely than any other group, and Bush’s decision not to attend the NAACP convention has drawn sharp criticism.

“A lot of African-American voters are motivated not by Kerry, but by their opposition to the current administration,” said former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry rides his bike Wednesday along the Esplanade in Boston. Kerry's campaign will focus on recruiting black voters to come to the polls, in part through use of television ads.