Assessing Kerry vs. Bush

? Even before Sen. John Kerry’s decisive New Hampshire primary victory solidified his grip on the Democratic nomination, Republicans had begun to define him as an unelectable liberal.

GOP national chairman Ed Gillespie, shifting his target from former front-runner Howard Dean, said Kerry’s voting record is “more liberal” than that of his Massachusetts colleague, Sen. Edward Kennedy. And the Republican National Committee’s energetic opposition research operation spewed out a release decrying Kerry’s votes against intelligence funding.

There is considerable truth in those charges, and Kerry’s lengthy voting record will give the GOP ample targets. But he also has shown in the last month that he will be no pushover and can make a cogent case against President Bush. Indeed, many Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire said they chose Kerry because he best meets their top goal: someone who can beat Bush.

But despite a poll showing Kerry three statistically insignificant points ahead, it won’t be easy for him to become the first Northern Democratic president since another New Englander with similar initials, John F. Kennedy. Here is how he matches up against Bush:

Positions. The president likes to say that all of his rivals want to raise taxes. Kerry will counter that he would keep most of the recent middle-class and business cuts but repeal the Bush tax cut for the richest Americans.

Notwithstanding the appeal of anti-tax rhetoric, the president’s position is undercut by the fact that his cuts have failed so far to create jobs and must share some blame for increased state and local taxes and a record federal deficit.

Despite a long record of caution on using U.S. forces abroad and his vote against the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Kerry backed Bush in going after Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, though he opposed the $87 billion to pay for military costs and reconstruction.

While he will be accused of failing to back U.S. troops, polls also show the American people are skeptical of spending so much in Iraq when funds are needed at home for education and homeland security.

His many votes against weapons systems are a definite vulnerability. But they may be offset by the fact that his personal record of bravery as a decorated hero of Vietnam gives him credibility on national security issues.

On domestic issues, much depends on whether voters believe that Bush’s No Child Left Behind education plan and his newly passed prescription drug plan will produce promised results. They could believe Democratic arguments that the school plan is federal interference that undermines state programs and that the drug plan helps drug companies and HMOs more than seniors.

Background. Kerry may have some trouble making a case that, as a longtime Washington fixture, he can reform what many Americans regard as a corrupt political system. Senators rarely get elected president, and he lacks former Gov. Bush’s executive experience.

But the president’s record in mismanaging the federal budget may prove a powerful argument against his managerial skills.

Intangibles. Kerry ought to be a cartoonists’ delight with that lanky frame and craggy look, and he makes a commanding figure on a podium. He is no slouch as a debater, as former GOP Gov. William Weld learned in the 1996 Senate race.

His success stems in part from increased energy in campaigning, and his performance in last weekend’s pickup hockey game should offset any rumors about his health stemming from surgery a year ago for prostate cancer.

His fast ascension is precisely what party chairman Terry McAuliffe had hoped for in speeding the primary schedule. The process seems to have produced an early re-evaluation that sank the weaker general election candidate, Dean, in favor of a potentially stronger one.


Carl P. Leubsdorf is Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News.