Uncertainty marks conference

? This ski resort beneath snowy peaks is renowned as the annual gathering place of around 2,000 of the world’s political and business leaders who come to ponder the state of the world.

But what goes on here is more than the networking of the rich and powerful. The World Economic Forum is a barometer that reflects the shifting moods — and blind spots — of the global elite.

In the mid-’90s, American businessmen were champs, and U.S. technology wizards were stars. Then came the crash of Asian and Russian markets, and the bursting of the high-tech bubble. Businessmen who had been considered masters of the universe lost their aura.

In 2002, the shadow of terrorism fell over the conference, as it moved to the Waldorf Hotel in New York City to show solidarity with the victims of Sept. 11. A “never-give-in” party was held on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, blocks from ground zero, and everyone talked of security concerns and pondered the likely impact of the outing of Enron.

In 2003, expectations of an Iraq war dominated proceedings, and the level of anti-Bush feeling among non-Americans was stunning and revealing.

This year, that anger seems muted. The most powerful emotion here, in contrast with Bush’s upbeat address to Americans, is uncertainty: uncertainty about where the world, the global economy, and the United States are headed.

Despite a strong economic upturn in the United States and Asia, no one here is certain whether U.S. growth will continue given the huge Bush deficits and the dollar’s slide. There are fears that free-trade negotiations may be in free fall. There’s unease that the inequities bred by globalization can’t be easily offset, and that religious fundamentalism is on the rise in reaction to the disorientation that globalization brings with it.

CEOs can attend panels with titles such as “Is Efficiency vs. Equity a Zero-Sum Game?” and a whole series of seminars given on globalization by nongovernmental organizations in a side conference. Those who worry that international institutions (much scorned by the White House) are in big trouble can seek out “Reforming the United Nations Once and for All” and “Have the Post-War Global Institutions Reached the End of the Road?”

Most of all, the conferees are struggling to come to grips with a world in which the United States is the overwhelming but unpredictable military power. “Plotting the Hegemon’s Course” is the title of one seminar, which will examine this question: “How might the rest of the world respond to U.S. long-term supremacy?”

To warm up the conferees, Davos invited the ultimate globalizer, Bill Clinton, to a pre-conference lunch. After getting off a plane with no sleep, he wowed a full house with an hour’s free-floating remarks on the need to help the half the world that gets by on less than $2 a day.

Davos organizer Klaus Schwab has also undertaken the thankless task of promoting a “dialogue of civilizations” between Muslims and the West, as an antidote to the conditions that breed Mideast terrorism. Amazingly, he has bookended the conference with an opening speech by Iran’s President Mohammad Khatami and a planned turn near the end by Vice President Dick Cheney. (The fact that Cheney will appear indicates that the White House is interested in mending fences with the international audience here.)

Starting such a dialogue won’t be easy and may not achieve much. The Bush team is still debating how to deal with an Iran that was a charter member of Bush’s “axis of evil,” and Iran’s feuding factions are debating how to deal with America in the wake of an Iraq war. When asked at a press conference whether he might want to meet with Cheney, the black-turbaned Khatami retorted, “I spoke of dialogue between civilizations and between scholars and wise men.” If those conditions were “realized,” the Iranian leader said, dialogue might be possible.

But Schwab isn’t daunted. He’s given prominent billing to other Muslim leaders, including Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf (who is helping fight al-Qaida even as his nuclear scientists are accused of helping Libya and Iran with proliferation). There are hopeful plenary sessions titled “Toward an ‘Arab Renaissance,'” “Reforming Arab Economies,” and “What Happens When Saudi Arabia Reforms?” Hope springs eternal.

This year, the Davos forum is trying to prove that even in an age of great uncertainty and irrationality, rational actors can give concrete suggestions about how to effect change.


Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer.