WEST DES MOINES, IOWA ? Cancel that Howard Dean cakewalk.

John Kerry and John Edwards stole the show in Iowa, reversing a race once thought to be a showdown between Dean and 1988 caucus winner Dick Gephardt — the third- and fourth-place finishers.

“It just turns the race on its head,” said political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. “It seems as though two weeks ago, Iowa voters just kind of stopped and said, ‘we’re only kidding,’ and started anew to evaluate this race.”

Now Dean, whose anti-war fervor and record-breaking, Internet-based fund raising made him a political star in 2003, faces the possibility of sudden collapse, analysts said.

Apparently bleeding from attacks on his temperament, maturity and experience, the former front-runner has a week to regroup before next Tuesday’s primary in New Hampshire.

The former Vermont governor enjoys a geographical advantage there — but so does the suddenly sizzling Kerry, a Massachusetts senator.

Kerry combined attacks on Dean with renewed emphasis on his foreign policy experience, analysts said, forging victory from a campaign that had seemed stalled just last month.

“Maybe he just simply had the best blend of message and organization,” said political analyst Charles Cook.

Edwards also thrust himself into the thick of things.

The North Carolina senator, who apparently benefited by running a more positive campaign, also will compete in New Hampshire. But the prize in his eyes is the South Carolina primary the following week on Feb. 3.

Presidential hopeful Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., celebrates as he arrives on the stage at his campaign party in Des Moines, Iowa. Kerry finished in first place Monday in the Iowa caucuses.

Monday’s top three finishers must also contend with retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who bypassed Iowa to focus on New Hampshire and South Carolina, and is running well in both states.

Former vice presidential candidate Joe Lieberman joins the fray in New Hampshire and South Carolina, and other states staging Democratic contests Feb. 3.

“No one’s going to run the deck and win this thing early,” said Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack. “This is going to be a very competitive process.”

Gephardt a casualty

Gephardt probably won’t be a part of it. A party official told the Associated Press that the Missouri congressman would drop out of the race. Many analysts had said he needed to win Iowa to maintain the fund-raising necessary to move on.

As Iowa candidates head for the granite hills of New Hampshire, each faces major challenges if he is to claim the right to oppose President Bush in November.

Dean, once considered a solid bet for the nomination, saw his lead in Iowa and national polls evaporate in the heat of steady criticism from rivals, attacks that don’t figure to end in New Hampshire.

Saying he would not be a “pincushion,” Dean responded with speeches and ads attacking rivals for their support of the Iraq war, though some Iowans denounced the counterattack as negative campaigning.

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., greets supporters during a rally in Des Moines, Iowa. He was celebrating his second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses.

Also an issue is Dean’s temper, displayed in living color this month during a widely replayed yelling match with a pro-Bush heckler.

Newly discovered comments Dean made back in 2000 criticizing the Iowa caucus system did not help, analysts said, underscoring what they call a tendency to shoot from the lip.

Who can beat Bush?

Pollsters said that while many Iowa Democrats appreciated Dean’s opposition to the Iraq invasion and to Bush’s tax-cut policy, a growing number developed doubts about how he measured up to their top qualification: The ability to beat Bush.

“They really, genuinely feel a Democratic candidate can defeat George Bush,” said John Zogby, who conducted daily tracking polls in Iowa for MSNBC and Reuters.

In the days leading up to the caucuses, Dean aides said that even if they fell short in Iowa, they have an advantage down the line that opponents don’t. Their Internet-built organizations across the country allow them to compete in every primary and caucus; other candidates may have to pick and choose.

“It’s a long process,” said Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi. “We’ve built a campaign that can hold up.”

Kerry, meanwhile, probably has to win his neighboring state of New Hampshire — though that now seems possible in light of his spectacular success in Iowa.

All but written off at the start of the year, Kerry revived his campaign by improving on the stump and connecting with voters, said analysts and aides.

“He’s actually slogging it out in town hall meetings at VFW halls and chili feeds in firehouses,” said Kerry spokesman David Wade, “answering the voters’ questions, listening to what’s happening in their lives.”

Kerry also drew not-so-subtle distinctions from Dean, pledging “answers” rather than “anger.” Pollsters said Iowans who worried about a Dean candidacy began to see the craggy-faced Vietnam vet as a suitable alternative.

Others looked to Edwards, the former trial lawyer who polled in the low single digits in Iowa throughout 2003.

Distancing himself from the attacks among Dean, Kerry, and Gephardt, Edwards ran a “positive” campaign that earned him new adherents, including an endorsement from The Des Moines Register.

He also prospered, analysts said, because none of the other candidates attacked him — a condition that will probably soon change.