Four years ago, this column predicted this result for the 2000 election: George W. Bush, 271 electoral votes; Al Gore, 267.

Really. All the more reason to weigh carefully our annual look ahead to the new year:

JANUARY — President Bush, on a secret New Year’s Day trip to Korea, announces a pact with North Korea to make Korea a nuclear-free zone. Rep. Dick Gephardt edges past Howard Dean in the Iowa caucuses. Sen. John Edwards finishes third.

A late write-in campaign pushes Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton past Dean in the New Hampshire primary. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark is third. Mrs. Clinton says she isn’t a candidate. The Patriots win the Super Bowl.

FEBRUARY — Bush announces the new budget will have a $600 billion deficit but calls it “manageable.” Candidates Dean, Edwards, Clark and Gephardt all win Feb. 3 primaries. Dean edges past Gephardt in the Michigan caucuses and Wisconsin primary, emerging as the front-runner. Despite support from Al Gore, Dean loses to Clark in Tennessee. The Supreme Court approves Texas’ redistricting plan, 5-4.

MARCH — Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld says U.S. troops are “closing in on” Osama bin Laden. Clark captures the Texas primary, but Dean wins New York, California, Maryland, the New England states and Illinois. The stock market hits 11,000. Polls show Bush leading Dean, 55-37. Top congressional Democrats urge Sen. Clinton to challenge Dean in the late primaries. She refuses.

APRIL — The Bush re-election campaign war chest reaches $250 million. Rumsfeld says Osama bin Laden eluded a U.S. dragnet. Dean clinches the Democratic nomination by winning the Pennsylvania primary. Congress passes a budget that cuts the deficit to $595 billion.

MAY — Bush cuts U.S. troop strength in Iraq to 50,000. The Texas Rangers, buoyed by pitching, lead the American League West. Bush, on a surprise Memorial Day visit to U.S. troops in Germany, discovers they all have been dispatched to Iraq. Bill and Hillary Clinton endorse Dean.

JUNE — Dean names Gore as the Democratic keynoter. The Dallas Mavericks lose the NBA semifinals to the Los Angeles Lakers, who defeat the Detroit Pistons in the finals. With the New York Yankees in fourth place, George Steinbrenner fires Manager Joe Torre, naming coach Don Mattingly as the new manager. “Free at last,” Torre says.

JULY — Dean picks Gore as his running mate, calling him “an experienced vice president.” Amid rising U.S. casualties in Iraq, Bush’s lead in the polls drops to 51-43. After Sen. Clinton’s nomination speech electrifies the Democratic convention, delegates revolt and pick her over Gore as the vice-presidential candidate.

AUGUST — Polls show Dean edging ahead of Bush, 52-47. Bush stuns the nation by announcing that Vice President Dick Cheney will become governor general of Iraq; he picks national security adviser Condoleezza Rice as his new running mate.

SEPTEMBER — Bush, on a secret Labor Day visit to Iran, announces the country has agreed to give up its nuclear weapons. Bush regains his lead and announces he will be too busy to debate Dean. The Boston Red Sox edge the Yankees for the American League East title; the Rangers take the West.

OCTOBER — The fiscal year ends with a record $550 billion deficit. Dean edges ahead, and Bush agrees to debate in Waco. The Houston Astros beat the Red Sox in the decisive World Series game .The White House announces the capture of Osama bin Laden.

NOVEMBER — Though he again loses the popular vote, Bush edges Dean 271 to 267 in electoral votes, clinching victory after a two-week recount gives him Vermont. The GOP gains four Senate seats and five House seats, all in Texas.

The White House says that it was mistaken and that the man thought to be Osama bin Laden is Mullah Omar.

DECEMBER — Bush says Vice President-elect Rice will double as secretary of state. Sen. Clinton says it is too soon to consider a 2008 presidential race. She then leaves for a speaking tour in Iowa.

Bill Clinton announces his candidacy for mayor of New York.

— Carl P. Leubsdorf is Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News.