Washington ? Syria has launched a diplomatic campaign aimed at canceling its membership in the Bush administration’s “rogue” nations club. But the United States and its key allies remain cool, unconvinced that the overtures amount to anything more than lip service from a government that remains fundamentally hostile to U.S. interests.

The question for the Bush administration is whether Syria can be persuaded to follow Libya’s lead in renouncing terrorism and giving up any weapons of mass destruction it might have.

The answer is a matter of some urgency in this campaign year, because a new U.S. law will trigger economic and political sanctions against Syria in May — unless Secretary of State Colin Powell certifies that Damascus is making progress toward meeting American demands or President Bush waives the sanctions on national security grounds.

The guessing game in Washington is how long American patience with Syria will last if Bush is re-elected. With the administration’s hands full with Iraq, Afghanistan and North Korea, no one expects the United States to put military pressure on Syria before the November presidential election.

But the neoconservatives who have shaped the administration’s foreign policy have long argued that Syria is a destabilizing force and an obstacle to democratization in the Middle East. Last year, as Washington was preparing for war in Iraq, a senior administration official and neoconservative was asked what the U.S. message was for Syria and Libya.

“Take a number,” he replied.

“There’s a lot of frustration with the Syrians,” said one official who requested anonymity. “Basically, there’s the feeling that the clock is ticking on Syria, and they need to heed the wake-up call.”

Anxious about his nation’s poor standing with Washington, Syrian President Bashar Assad has been receiving a flurry of American, French and British visitors, official and private, and telling them how eager he is to improve relations.

In December, for example, Assad sent senior official Bouthaina Shaaban on an unusual seven-state speaking tour across the United States aimed at persuading audiences that Syria is not a terrorist nation.

“They are taking on American public opinion beyond the Beltway, which is a huge difference,” said Edward Djerejian, a former U.S. ambassador to Syria.

“They’re becoming much more savvy,” Djerejian said. “They realize they have to be.”