Broncos will prevail against Colts backups

When the line for Denver’s home game against Indianapolis came out, the Broncos were 51/2-point favorites, a surprise considering the Colts are 12-3.

By Tuesday, Denver was an 81/2-point favorite.

Anyone who watched the Rams beat the Eagles’ junior varsity Monday night knows exactly what is going on.

The Broncos (9-6) need to beat the Colts to make the playoffs. The Colts need nothing except to stay healthy: They are locked in as the third-seeded team in the AFC and could play the Broncos again a week later in Indianapolis.

So the line reflects the incentive factor, as it does in a number of games this final weekend of the NFL season.

“There are a lot of factors involved in how much they’ll play or how long,” Colts coach Tony Dungy says, referring to his starters, including Peyton Manning, who broke Dan Marino’s record for touchdown passes in a season last week.

So maybe Manning will play long enough to throw his 50th touchdown pass. More likely he won’t. He has his record; his top three wide receivers each has 1,000 yards; and the Colts stay healthy for the playoffs.

BRONCOS, 27-6

Pittsburgh (plus 9) at Buffalo

Another glorified exhibition, except that Buffalo needs to win. Real line would probably favor the Steelers by 3 to 6.

BILLS, 20-6

Dallas (plus 21/2) at New York Giants

Eli finally gets over the top.

GIANTS, 20-19

Kansas City (minus 3) at San Diego

A six-point swing here; the Chargers originally were favored by 3.

Same theory.

CHIEFS, 32-16

New York Jets (minus 3) at St. Louis

Surprise! A game that means something to both teams.

JETS, 24-20

New Orleans (plus 7) at Carolina

Ditto.

PANTHERS, 24-20

Tampa Bay (plus 3) at Arizona

And flip again — Bucs were favored by 2.

CARDINALS, 19-14

Detroit (minus 3) at Tennessee

The Titans have few healthy bodies.

LIONS, 31-23

Minnesota (minus 4) at Washington

The Vikings need the win, the Redskins are out of it. But Washington will play hard.

REDSKINS, 18-17

San Francisco (plus 14) at New England

The Patriots could play Troy Brown at QB and win. Rohan Davey is more likely.

PATRIOTS, 31-3

Miami (plus 11) at Baltimore

Jim Bates saved the little that was left of the Dolphins’ season. He’ll keep his finale close.

RAVENS, 17-13

Green Bay (plus 3) at Chicago

Another line-flipper: Packers were favored by 2 at the start. Favre will start to keep his streak, but …

BEARS, 20-16

Jacksonville (off) at Oakland

Jaguars are still alive but realistically blew a playoff berth last week.

JAGUARS, 21-20

Cleveland (plus 101/2) at Houston

Texans have their first .500 season on the line.

TEXANS, 28-7

Atlanta (plus 51/2) at Seattle

Seattle tries to clinch the West.

SEAHAWKS, 24-16

Cincinnati (minus 3) at Philadelphia

Marvin Lewis gets his second straight 8-8 season.

BENGALS, 24-7

LAST WEEK: 7-8-1 (spread), 10-6 (straight up)

SEASON: 104-115-5 (spread), 147-77 (straight up)