Ukraine, Russia ready for democracy

For those of us who witnessed the joy and the drama of the end of communist rule in the Soviet Union, the last decade has been disappointing.

Russia has slid backward, from the beginnings of democracy and an open society, to soft authoritarianism and a closing down of open debate. Many of the former Soviet republics are dictatorships, with only the trappings of elections. Only the three Baltic republics, now members of the European Union, seem solidly democratic.

Ukraine’s democratic uprising gives reason to hope that the yearnings unleashed in the former Soviet Union in the late 1980s are still alive. The first sign came a year ago in the “Rose Revolution” in the former Soviet republic of Georgia, when mass demonstrations peacefully overturned a rigged election.

The determination of millions of Ukrainians to reject the fraudulent presidential vote last month is equally inspiring. And the reverberations from Ukraine, a nation of 48 million that sits at a strategic crossroads between east and west in Europe, will be even greater.

Celebrations of the triumph of the Ukrainian revolt are premature. A series of twists and turns must be navigated before a free and fair re-run of the vote is conducted Dec. 26.

But it is not too soon to draw lessons from Ukraine about the spread of democracy:

  • Democracy needs democrats: This simple, yet profound insight was offered to me by Stanford political scientist Michael McFaul, who has worked on democratization in the former Soviet Union for 15 years. Without people willing to come to the streets, nothing would have happened. The West may have protested, but the fix would have stuck.
  • Civil society matters: Ukraine had vibrant organizations, outside of government control, such as the Committee of Ukrainian Voters, which monitored elections. Those organizations had roots in movements going back to the early 1990s when they fought for Ukraine’s independence from Soviet rule. And there was enough of a free press left — including one regional television network — to keep alternative voices heard. The Internet played a key role in disseminating information and mobilizing opposition, particularly among Ukrainian students.
  • Soft power works: If the United States helped promote democracy in Ukraine it was not through the Marines. Exit polls were the more effective weapon.
  • Rule of law: Democracy is not just about free elections. It is also about the rule of law. Ukrainians want clean government. And it was their Supreme Court, with the crowds at its back, that forced new elections.
  • Europe stood up: Europe, both old and new, drew a line in Ukraine, with the United States, refusing to accept the rigged election results and mediating the negotiations that followed. Ukrainians see democracy as their ticket to membership in the European Union. For them, joining Europe means prosperity and a “normal” life.
  • Nationalism rules: The events in Ukraine demonstrate, once again, that the most powerful force at work is nationalism. The movement was propelled by pride in Ukraine and anger at Russia’s desire to dominate its neighbor and former vassal. It drew on deep wells of nationalism, not only in Western Ukraine where Soviet rule was hated but even in the east where many Ukrainians reject Moscow’s heavy hand.

The Russians — like Americans — have a tin ear when it comes to understanding that others resent them. Moscow was surprised when its crude intervention in favor of one of the presidential candidates backfired.

Russian President Vladimir Putin may comfort himself with the belief — which he has expressed in recent days — that this is the product of Western meddling. But no outside power created Ukraine’s democratic movement.

Now Putin must worry that the Ukrainian uprising will spread to other former Soviet republics — perhaps even into Russia itself.

“A successful democratic handover in Ukraine would undermine a key myth underpinning Putin’s increasingly authoritarian regime,” scholar and journalist Igor Torbakov told me, “that Russia is not yet ready for democracy.”

— Daniel Sneider is foreign affairs columnist for the San Jose Mercury News.