Forecasts

Forecasters draw unfair criticism when they are unable to cite precisely the route of a major storm.

Any time there is a major weather-induced tragedy such as the devastation from Hurricane Charley in Florida, there is an immediate surge of complaints about how bad a job forecasters did in preparing stricken regions for the onslaught.

First, anyone who has ever studied weather patterns, in Kansas or elsewhere, knows how unpredictable something like a tornado or hurricane can be. Many times, the best forecasters can do is tell people to seek safety and shelter from a major storm. The predictors certainly did that and more in Florida, and it is amazing how many refused to believe they were in danger or could be and stayed where they should not have.

One radar pattern after another showed how Hurricane Charley was traversing the water and land and made it quite clear that there was no way to be sure what the final path might be. Tampa was supposed to be struck hard but escaped much of the impact. Other communities along the Gulf Coast were devastated in ways that most felt would never occur, given the original predictions about the storm’s path.

Then the hurricane hit land in the Punta Gorda area, shifted course to the east and north and roared over cities such as Orlando, which seldom feels the effects of hurricanes. Nature decides its own course, and all the data in the world cannot predict such caprice. Forecasters can warn people of danger but they cannot ever be sure just where it will strike. There never has been a clearer case in point than Hurricane Charley.

Despite all their sophisticated equipment, weather experts remain at the mercy of natural conditions. How can people blame forecasters for a change of direction and intensity for a ravaging entity such as Charley? People in Florida know, or should know, that when they build and live in certain regions, they face perils from hurricanes, the same as Kansans have to be concerned about the threat posed by tornados.

For the most part, the forecasters of the Florida storm did about as well as mere humans can do. It was obvious from the outset that some locales were going to be laid to waste. The most important goal was to protect life and limb by giving sufficient warnings so people could move to safety.

That was done by the forecasters. The fact they did not spot the precise location of Hurricane Charley only emphasizes how insignificant human beings and all their equipment can be when the storm clouds gather and decide to erupt, on their own time and along their own course.