Washington ? Can Howard Dean escape the Starbucks ghetto?

New polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, the critical first two states in the Democratic presidential race, show the former Vermont governor dominating among voters with a college degree — the sort of people more likely to stop at Starbucks than a doughnut shop in the morning. But in both states he is showing much less strength among voters who did not graduate from college.

That sharp educational divide has been a driving force in every recent Democratic race involving candidates, like Dean, who positioned themselves as Washington outsiders and reformers. In those contests, the inability to sufficiently connect with blue-collar and less-educated voters ultimately helped doom contenders such as Gary Hart in 1984, Paul Tsongas in 1992 and Bill Bradley in 2000, all of whom generated enthusiasm among better-educated voters.

Many of Dean’s rivals believe that he faces the same risk if he cannot build more support among blue-collar voters, especially after the race contracts to a two- or three-person contest after the initial primaries.

“At the end of the day, you’ve got to be able to span the party to win,” said David Axelrod, a top adviser to Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina. “Certainly there is a working-class base to our party, and the ability to relate to those voters is very, very important.”

Other analysts, however, believe that because the Democrats over the last decade have grown increasingly dependent on support from more-affluent and better-educated voters, Dean may be able to win the nomination primarily with their backing — especially if voters without college degrees don’t unify around one of his rivals.

Democratic presidential hopeful Howard Dean campaigns at the Sioux City Convention Center in Sioux City, Iowa. New polls in Iowa, where Dean spoke Monday, and New Hampshire show the former Vermont governor dominating among voters with a college degree.