Analysis: State budget savings touted by Sebelius team don’t add up

? Alone and out of context, the number looks impressive: $76,258,139.

It’s the tally Gov. Kathleen Sebelius’ administration puts on the savings and efficiencies identified by government review teams she appointed before her inauguration in January.

However, the figure becomes far less impressive — and seems much less a measure of a more efficient government — with increased scrutiny.

True savings are mostly at the margins of state government, and the figure includes estimates of savings yet to materialize. Also, $40.5 million, or 53 percent, of the total represents additional revenues raised from tax amnesty programs.

The review of government remains ongoing, but the state’s financial situation, budget issues and Sebelius’ own campaign rhetoric have pressured the new governor into demonstrating results, even though the hunt for efficiencies and remaking government takes time.

“There’s ongoing work,” said Budget Director Duane Goossen. “Some of it, you may not even be able to put a dollar figure on.”

Sebelius formed five review teams and an education policy group to fulfill an oft-repeated promise from her 2002 gubernatorial campaign to conduct a “top to bottom” review of state government.

She made the promise in response to questions about whether she would increase taxes to shore up the state’s then-faltering budget. While she stopped short of making an absolute pledge, Sebelius did say during one October debate, “No one is talking about a tax increase. We need to do more with less.”

Sebelius managed to escape her first legislative session without increasing taxes or slashing programs mostly with fiscal trickery. The state began delaying the first aid payment to school districts due in June, and Kansans now must pay the second half of their annual property tax bills by May, instead of June.

Still, the budget picture might have remained dicey for Sebelius had not the federal government come through with about $154 million in relief and had not the first tax amnesty program been more successful than expected.

The state’s finances seem more stable now, with state revenue collections meeting expectations. Sebelius expects the state to get through its 2004 fiscal year without trimming spending from the budget legislators approved earlier this year.

Dissension

But for some Kansans, the status quo is not good enough.

Parents and administrators in the Dodge City and Salina school district have sued the state, arguing that it starves its public schools.

Rising medical costs continue to make providing services to the needy more expensive, and the state faces another lawsuit in which advocates for people with developmental disabilities accuse it of spending too little on community programs.

Feeling the heat — and facing new questions about whether she will propose a tax increase — Sebelius told an audience in Lawrence earlier this month that she would “reinvest” budget savings in services and aid to schools.

Several Republicans pounced last week on the Democratic governor’s statement, with Sen. Derek Schmidt, R-Independence, calling Sebelius’ claim of savings “phony.”

“There is no pot of gold to start handing out,” Schmidt said.

Sebelius does deserve some credit for a change in attitude in state government. Her predecessor, GOP Gov. Bill Graves, seemed far more content with the status quo and even, according to a former top aide, declined to do something about unused vehicles in the state motor pool because he did not want to anger state employees as he was leaving office.

Still, Republicans have valid reasons to criticize Sebelius’ numbers.

Figuring it out

First, there is the tax amnesty programs’ contribution to the total. While it represents more aggressive — and perhaps efficient — collection of tax revenue, it does not represent government downsizing. Instead, the state is collecting more money so it can sustain programs as they are.

Second, an additional $10.4 million of the total represents revenue raised by higher fees, on items such as driver’s licenses, vehicle titles and birth certificates. In effect, instead of raising sales or income taxes, the state raised another, more limited tax.

Also, $4.9 million of the total comes from suspending construction projects or transfers of general tax revenues to specific purposes, such as State Fair improvements or water projects.

And some numbers included in the tally are soft. For example, the total includes $10 million in projected savings in prescription drug costs that have yet to develop.

“Whether that will be achievable is not completely known yet, but certainly part of it is,” Goossen said.

Actual savings realized to date amount to less than $8.8 million, not even 12 percent of the total claimed. And $8.8 million is a mere pittance in a $10.2 billion state budget.

Sebelius has been in office less than a year, raising the question of whether it is fair to expect huge savings so early into her administration. The ongoing review of state government holds the promise of more efficiencies.

But dramatic changes haven’t occurred yet, despite the big figure Sebelius puts before the public.