U.S. must prod Iraqi process

? In order to stop running Iraq, the United States needs to hand over power to a legitimate Iraqi government.

But guess what? The Iraqi political process is at a standstill. And it shows little sign of moving forward anytime soon.

U.S. occupation czar Paul Bremer hoped Iraqis could write a constitution by mid- to late 2004 and hold national elections soon after. The interim Iraqi Governing Council (GC) displays little interest in cooperating with that schedule.

The GC’s paralysis is not only bad for George Bush’s election campaign but also a disaster for Iraqis. They need to see a timeline for the end of occupation. This would undercut the widespread belief that Americans are encouraging chaos as an excuse to stay and control Iraqi oil.

Instead, GC members have been globetrotting and avoiding difficult political decisions. In my three weeks in Iraq, only five to seven of 25 members showed up at weekly meetings.

As the GC’s reputation plummets, the frustration of those who care about Iraq’s future is evident.

“Everything is waiting on the constitution, including stability and the end of occupation,” says Fuad Masoum, the Kurdish jurist heading the preparatory committee for the constitutional assembly. “These trips abroad are not more important than this.”

Yet it’s not surprising that the council is frozen. To move the constitutional process, the council will have to make compromises as daunting as those made by our Founding Fathers, in circumstances much more grim.

For starters, the council must decide whether a constitutional assembly will be chosen by selection or nationwide election.

Keep in mind that this is a country traumatized by years of dictatorship. Its people are deeply suspicious of U.S. intentions. The top Shiite religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, has issued a fatwa demanding the delegates be elected. One explanation of why he did so reveals the emotions aroused by occupation.

“In 1922, British specialists wrote the constitution for Iraq and there was fear this kind of thing might happen again,” Masoum told me. “There was a rumor that an American Jewish consultant had been sent here to write the constitution, so Sistani made this fatwa.” The reference was to New York University Law School professor Noah Feldman, who briefly advised Bremer on constitutional issues.

In fact, elections make sense for more rational reasons. They are probably the only way to ensure that the constitutional process has legitimacy. But the idea gives many council members the jitters. Kurds and Sunnis (and U.S. officials) fear elections will give religious Shiite Muslims the edge in drafting the document.

There is also the worry that organizing elections would be so time-consuming that the whole constitutional process would be delayed. A census would be needed to set up electoral rolls — an explosive undertaking in a country where each ethnic group claims to represent more people than is the case.

“It’s a doomed scenario to call for full elections for a constitutional assembly,” says Muhyi al-Khateeb, the hardworking secretary-general of the GC. “Who can afford to spend another two years in this mess? The Iraqi people need to see something in their hands.”

The compromise — backed by Bremer and the GC, and by Masoum — would select a body of elite Iraqis to decide their country’s fate. Religious and professional organizations in each of Iraq’s 18 provinces would convene an assembly of lawyers, imams, teachers and other notables. They, in turn, would pick delegates to the convention.

Would such a formula satisfy the ayatollah, or ordinary Iraqis? Not clear. This convention must make momentous decisions, such as what role Islam will play in the Iraqi state. It will also have to decide whether Kurds can have their own autonomous federal area. Many Iraqis fear such a division will split the country and want Kurds to accept federal states based on geographical, not ethnic lines.

There is no perfect way forward. Saddam’s depredations have left Iraq with no obvious leaders, no de Gaulle, no Mandela, no Attaturk. Ahmad Chalabi, the Pentagon’s choice, has garnered no support.

Either Bremer must squeeze the GC into a decision, or he must swallow hard and call elections to a constitutional assembly. Some shortcut process to a ballot, forgoing a census, would have to be found.

There is no more time for dithering. Iraqis have to embark on their political process. That is the first step toward getting U.S. troops home.


Trudy Rubin is a columnist and editorial board member for the Philadelphia Inquirer.