The Republicanization of the South is gaining strength, locking in GOP majorities in Congress and complicating Democratic hopes of winning the presidency. It could have a profound impact on national policy over the next few years.

Here is a brief look at the South’s political landscape:

• The Republican victories in Kentucky and Mississippi on Tuesday will give the GOP three-fourths of the region’s governorships. And it could add another in Louisiana next week.
• Democratic Sen. Bob Graham’s announcement that he won’t run next year in Florida increases the Republicans’ chances of increasing their Senate majority. In fact, the GOP could win most of the six Southern Senate seats held by Democrats.
• The likelihood that the Justice Department will approve the pro-Republican congressional reapportionment in Texas will, unless overturned in the federal courts, make it almost impossible for Democrats to regain the House in this decade.
• And Georgia Democratic Sen. Zell Miller’s announcement that he will back Bush against any Democratic challenger next year sends yet another warning sign to the national Democratic Party.

Despite that dismal outlook in the South, Democrats retain one hope of regaining some influence over national policy: They could win the presidency next year without a single Southern state, though, as Bill Clinton demonstrated, the nomination of a Southerner would give them a shot at some Southern states.

Still, with so little hope in the South, the Democrats are more likely to pick a liberal Northerner. It all adds up to the latest stage in the political revolution that has boosted Republican politicians and conservative ideas, mainly because a once solidly Democratic South has become an increasingly solid Republican South.

Without its 25-seat majority in Southern U.S. House seats, the GOP would lose its overall majority. If its margin among Southern senators were reversed, Democrats would control the Senate. And without all of those Southern governors, the GOP would be less able to bolster its numbers in Congress and in legislatures through redistricting, as it did in Texas.

The impact of the Republican domination in the South is evident in the Democratic presidential race. One Southerner, Graham, already has dropped out. Another, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, is struggling. And the one who may have the best chance, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, is relying heavily on outspoken criticism of the war in Iraq.

The influx of Southerners into the GOP has changed the ideological makeup of Southern Democratic primaries, creating doubt they will help Gen. Clark, Edwards or the most conservative Northern contender, Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman. In South Carolina, which has the first Southern primary on Feb. 3, up to half of the votes could be cast by blacks and many others by relatively liberal whites.

Two events last weekend accentuated the Democratic Party’s increasingly Northern orientation.

One was the zest with which rivals attacked former Gov. Howard Dean of Vermont after he said, in contending Democrats must appeal to a broad cross-section, that he wanted to be the candidate “for guys with Confederate flags in their pickup trucks.”

The other was when Miller, a moderate who often has backed Bush policies, accused Democrats of ignoring the South.

At this point, Democratic chances of winning Southern states appear minimal in 2004. That means the party will need a nominee who can win almost every state in the Midwest, the West Coast and the Northeast.