Al-Ruweishid, Jordan ? The beige tents sit in rows on the cold, wind-swept plain. A giant bubble houses a Japanese health clinic. Water tanks protrude from the black gravel. This refugee camp is ready to receive thousands of fleeing Iraqis.

But so far, there isn’t a single one.

Refugee officials say poverty, fear, ignorance and possibly intimidation are keeping people home, in contrast with the 1991 Gulf War, when some 1.8 million Iraqis fled the country.

“I think everyone’s breathing a sigh of relief,” said Chris Lom, spokesman for the Geneva-based International Organization for Migration. “On the basis of the last Gulf War, I think everyone’s surprised.”

Aid officials planned for 600,000 people to flee the country in the initial stages of war — with about half going to Iran and the rest to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria.

But five days into the conflict, the only reported refugees are 14 people — two families — who fled coalition bombing of Mosul in northern Iraq and headed northwest into Syria on Sunday.

At many border crossings, more traffic is entering Iraq than leaving. Dozens, perhaps hundreds, of Iraqis have returned from Jordan in recent days, saying they want to help their country repel the invading army.

“Iraqis are not afraid. Nobody wants to leave their country, their homes,” said Makki Qubaysi, a 32-year-old Iraqi driver.

But while no refugee crisis has materialized, officials caution that the war is still in its early stages.

During the 1991 Gulf War, about 50,000 Iraqis fled the country, most to relatives in neighboring countries. But shortly after the war, when Saddam Hussein cracked down on rebellions in the south and north, some 1.8 million Iraqis streamed out.

Tents of an empty camp set up for possible refugees from Iraq sit in rows on a cold wind-swept plain near the far eastern Jordanian town of Al- Ruweishid. The camp has yet to receive a single Iraqi fleeing the U.S.-led fighting against Saddam Hussein.

Officials fear an exodus could develop as fighting intensifies. “We have to plan for people to run in every direction … because of chemical weapons, because of fear, because of lack of food,” said Peter Kessler, spokesman for the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.

He warned specifically about fierce fighting near the poor southern Iraqi city of Basra. “That place could become very desperate, very fast,” he said.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan warned Monday of a “humanitarian disaster” there, saying the International Committee of the Red Cross told him that Basra’s electricity and water supplies were threatened.

The Red Cross and Basra authorities have tried to get clean water to residents since the supply was cut Friday.

But why have so few people fled Iraq so far? The Bush administration told refugee officials that part of its war strategy would be to minimize the number of refugees.

Aid officials are skeptical. They say it is more likely that people simply are hunkering down in their houses, hoping the fighting will pass them by before their food runs out.

Poverty is a major factor. Since the last war, Iraqis have struggled under U.N.-imposed sanctions that have made the once-wealthy nation poor. People with few possessions fear that if they leave, they will return to nothing at all.

Many people also are unaware of the intensity of the battles raging around them because the government controls the news media, which gives few details of the fighting.