Study takes a new look at voter gender gap

Among the reasons Democrats have taken it on the chin is that their dependence on women voters is based on a flawed belief in sexual solidarity.

New data show that the gender gap is as much among women — whose urban, suburban or rural lifestyles tilt them in differing directions — as it is between the sexes.

The great myth of American voting is that money matters most. The rich are Republicans, the poor Democrats, and those in the middle are up for grabs depending on their wallets.

Although there is certainly some truth to that, a new joint study by top-drawer Republican and Democratic pollsters makes a powerful case for the notion that lifestyle and values are better political indicators.

Perhaps the greatest contribution by Public Opinion Strategies, which polls for Republicans from Jeb Bush to John McCain, and Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner, whose major partner was Bill Clinton’s pollster, is their gender-gap perspective.

The gender gap is the much discussed, but little understood, phenomenon that shows overall that women are more likely to support Democrats, while men tend to favor Republicans. Because women are a small majority of voters, Democrats have catered to them but mistakenly believe there is a shared female political consciousness that reflects urban views and values.

The new data reinforce the idea that the voting results are as related to lifestyle as gender.

Rural women vote much more like their male neighbors than do their urban counterparts. That’s because male and female values and lifestyles are more in sync in Podunk than in Philadelphia. The suburban data fall in between.

These data reinforce the idea that gender-voting differences are also a function of marital status. Married women and men, regardless of their marital status, vote similarly.

The nation’s suburban diaspora has made cities the province of racial minorities, white singles, gays, the very poor and the relatively rich. Because blacks, whether male or female, are die-hard Democrats, the gender gap is among whites.

Urban white women tend to be single, or married without children, and generally less affluent than their male neighbors are. They tend to see government as a provider of security, and are supportive of taxes to finance public programs. They see guns as an accomplice to crime, have little contact with the military, and generally are wary of force in foreign policy. Many see the Republican opposition to abortion as a personal affront to their ability to make personal choices.

The new study shows that in rural areas, home to 20 percent to 25 percent of voters, where white women are more likely to be married and have children, their lifestyles drive a different, more GOP-friendly view of life. Forty to 45 percent of voters live in suburbs, depending on how they’re measured, and the rest live in cities.

Rural women are much stronger abortion foes and are much more likely to attend church and see conservative Christianity as positive, unlike many of their city cousins who see it as repressive to women.

Rural women are more fervent military supporters because, as mothers and wives, they have greater ties to service people. They see guns as being for self-defense and recreation. Because they are more likely to be entrepreneurs, they view government and the taxes that finance it skeptically.

The data show urban women more likely (by a 51 percent to 32 percent margin) than their male neighbors to identify as Democrats. Suburban women were only 1 percentage point more likely, 41-40. Rural women are 3 percent more likely to be Republicans than Democrats, 43-40.

“This is not a partisan difference; the difference is ideological. Rural women are socially conservative, support the president at higher levels and care about the same issues as rural men,” said a Public Opinion Strategies memo.

Some Democrats understand. Al From and Bruce Reed head the Democratic Leadership Council, whose chairmanship helped to propel Bill Clinton onto the national stage. They sent a memo to party leaders after the November election:

“We will never be the party that loves guns the most, but we can respect law-abiding citizens’ right to own them. We will never be the pro-life party, but we can show we want abortion to be rare as well as legal.”

They emphasized that Democrats need to stop making fun of those who don’t share their urban-oriented values.

“Half that battle is simply respecting the values of mainstream America,” they argued.

The other half is understanding that gender warfare may make good headlines and excite party activists, but the average Jill these days may well prefer a Coors to a chardonnay.