Washington ? North Korea is clearly taking advantage of America’s preoccupation with Iraq to speed ahead with its development of a nuclear weapon.

North Korea already has the missiles needed to deliver a nuclear payload, missiles it has infamously been exporting to other rogue nations. At least Iraq’s Saddam Hussein has attempted to conceal his nuclear program, an indication that he understands that such a plan welcomes a reaction.

North Korea’s Kim Jong Il is behaving like Cuba’s Fidel Castro did in 1962, when he urged the Soviets to launch a first nuclear strike against the United States from Cuban soil. Both men appear to take the view that they have more to gain than lose in the game of nuclear brinkmanship.

After all, the question remains: “Is the United States willing to trade New York and Washington for Havana or Tokyo and Seoul for Pyongyang?”

The most important player in this game, however, is not the United States and its Japanese and South Korean allies, but China. If North Korea can intimidate Japan and South Korea with nukes, it can intimidate China, theoretically its ally. But North Korea is not a reliable ally, and its dictator is delusional.

We have written that China is the likely arbiter of peace in Asia because it has so much more to gain from peace than war. Its economy is fast shredding socialist stagnation in favor of capitalist prosperity. Its trade with the United States and other free nations is rapidly changing the face of that last major bastion of communism. So, North Korea’s nuclear posturing is not only detrimental to China’s economy, but also its security.

Meanwhile, the United States is debating whether or not North Korea is practicing nuclear blackmail, and the Bush administration is siding with those who say it is. So, the question is how to negotiate with North Korea to put an end to the crisis.

What if the Bush administration is wrong — as we believe it is? Kim Jong Il is not posturing. He is barging ahead to make North Korea a nuclear power. Realizing this nearly a decade ago, the Clinton administration threatened an attack, and North Korea backed down. That is why the North Koreans closed its plutonium-producing reactor in 1994. Now, North Korea shows no sign that it is inclined to negotiate. Already, that impoverished nation maintains an unnecessarily gigantic army at the expense of its people, who are relying upon foreign aid for food.

Kim Jong Il seems to believe that military power will create financial power, and that nuclear weapons provide the ultimate power. The time for negotiation with North Korea has expired, and the United States would be well served to coordinate with China on how best to bring a quick end to this emerging nuclear threat. Japan and South Korea are defenseless against such a threat, and these nations will be forced to come to terms with North Korea in the absence of a major power resolution to the crisis. If, as a result, a trade accommodation is reached, Kim Jong Il will have been proven right: nuclear power equals economic power.

Prediction: The United States and China will be forced to end North Korea’s nuclear program, diplomatically if possible, but more likely through the threat or use of overwhelming force.