Topeka ? Adam Taff is still campaigning, three months after the Republican lost a close race to incumbent Democrat Dennis Moore in a suburban Kansas City district.

Looking ahead to 2004, some prominent Republicans see him — despite the very real possibility of a primary challenger — as a good bet to defeat Moore, 21 months before the next general election.

The hopes of Taff and fellow Republicans are nurtured by examples of other congressional candidates in other states who’ve lost to incumbents, then ousted those same incumbents later.

“You know your opponent better,” said Missouri Rep. Kenny Hulshof, who unseated a Democratic incumbent in a rematch in 1996. “You’ve engaged them in debates. You know their personality, their strengths, their weaknesses.”

Moore wins moderates

Since Moore first ran for Congress in 1998, he’s frustrated Republican leaders with his ability to pull moderates away from the GOP fold in a district that includes the affluent — and heavily Republican — Kansas City-area suburbs of Johnson County.

Moore won 52 percent of the vote in unseating Republican incumbent Vince Snowbarger, who lost the backing of allies of moderate GOP Gov. Bill Graves. Throughout Johnson County, Moore signs sprouted up next to Graves signs in some yards.

In 2000, about $1 million in Republican ads couldn’t put GOP nominee Phill Kline, who was a vocal Graves critic in the Kansas House, over the top. Moore received 50 percent of the vote to 47 percent for Kline, who last year was elected attorney general.

Some Republicans, especially moderates, saw Taff as an ideal candidate: Young, handsome and a former U.S. Navy pilot who helped enforce the no-fly zone over Iraq and flew missions to Somalia and Bosnia.

Taff raised $1.16 million, but $155,000 of that came from his own pocket and Moore raised more than $1.9 million.

Taff also was hampered by the reluctance of the chairman of congressional Republicans’ campaign committee to offer help until late in the campaign.

Moore received 50 percent of the vote to Taff’s 47 percent.

Taff, a political unknown until he jumped into the 3rd District race in January 2002, said his efforts were hindered by his need to build name identification with voters, his relative difficulty compared to Moore in raising money and a late start.

“In each one of those areas we are in a substantially better position this time,” Taff said during an interview.

Moore professed disinterest in Taff’s activities, saying, “He has nothing to do with my future.”

“People think campaigns go on way too long now,” he said. “I don’t think they’re interested in hearing more campaign rhetoric.”

Precedent exists

But there are examples in both parties of candidates who’ve ousted an incumbent after losing a previous race.

In Missouri, Hulshof unseated veteran Democratic incumbent Harold Volkner seven years ago, after losing to Volkner in 1994. In Massachusetts, Democratic Rep. John Tierney defeated Republican incumbent Peter Torkildsen in 1996, two years after losing to Torkildsen.

Hulshof said after his first race, he concluded he didn’t have a good enough grasp of federal issues and “needed to do more homework.”

“After I lost in ’94, I watched C-SPAN all the time,” he recalled. “I waited for Harold’s one-minute speeches, if I could get them. I made sure when he showed up in the district, we had someone there to listen and take notes.”

Winning the nomination

So far this year, Taff has been wooing party leaders. His name came up frequently in remarks by GOP officials during the party’s annual Kansas Day festivities in late January.

Kansas Sen. Pat Roberts, former Sen. Bob Dole, and his wife, North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole, all made a point of publicly thanking him for taking on Moore last year.

But Taff’s renomination isn’t inevitable.

Roberts acknowledged during an interview that one goal for some Republicans in talking Taff up was to ward off a primary challenger. Taff drew some criticism within the party for supporting abortion rights.

“There are plenty of pro-lifers who oppose Adam Taff,” said state Sen. Kay O’Connor, a conservative Olathe Republican.

Still, O’Connor acknowledged Taff’s appeal as a candidate and said Moore “better look out” if Taff is the GOP nominee in 2004.

“He is a very formidable candidate,” she said. “He has charisma. He apparently has money. He has the desire.”