Washington ? Even before American military commanders nabbed Saddam Hussein, the U.S. military said it was winning the war against his followers. Even with him in hand, officials warned that the conflict isn’t over.

“The capture of Saddam Hussein is a defining moment in the new Iraq,” said Lt. Gen. Ricardo Sanchez, the U.S. commander in Iraq. “But we do not expect at this point in time that we will have a complete elimination of those attacks” by Saddam loyalists.

And while U.S. officials have long said they did not believe that the former dictator was leading the attacks on Americans and their allies in Iraq, Saddam’s capture could result in more attacks, experts said.

Iraqis have ample reasons to celebrate the arrest, but exile leader Abbas Mehdi said there was still a boiling mix of emotional reactions to the news: joy, humiliation, perhaps even a determination to join the resistance against the U.S. occupation.

“There are two arguments now. One says the capture of Saddam will eventually lead to the elimination of the resistance, and the U.S. moving the Iraqi people toward rebuilding the country,” he said. “The other is that things get worse. People who hate the occupation but did not want to join Saddam’s cause may now join the resistance.”

Since U.S. troops captured his capital in April, the former dictator has been heard only on suspect audiotapes of poor quality. U.S. officials and military commanders generally agreed that he must be moving frequently and communicating rarely to stay hidden.

Maj. Gen. Ray Odierno, the 4th Infantry Division commander whose troops found the ex-strongman hiding in a hole near a farmhouse, said “no cell phones, no communications equipment” were found with him.

“I know he wasn’t coordinating the entire effort, because I believe it’s not coordinated nationally, and I don’t think it ever was.” Odierno said. “I think he was more there for moral support.”

Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D-W.Va., vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said that “the location and circumstances of his capture” made it “clear that Saddam was not managing the insurgency, and that he had very little control or influence.”

In this image released by the U.S. Army, former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is shown after he was arrested near his Tikrit home. Saddam was found Saturday hiding in a hole in the ground.

Rockefeller also said that could mean the insurgency will be harder to put down.

“That is significant and disturbing because it means the insurgents are not fighting for Saddam, they’re fighting against the United States,” the senator cautioned.

Wait and see

Saddam’s capture, however, could also work to stabilize the country.

With Saddam captured, Iraqis less fearful of the future may bring new intelligence leads to U.S. forces, as they did after his sons Odai and Qusai were killed, said Rachel Bronson, director of Middle East studies with the Council on Foreign Relations.

‘We got him’: Saddam found hiding in filthy hole near hometown Area troops, families heartened by news Iraq native hails news Dictator to face tough inquiry Victory sweet for Bush Saddam’s fall: from palaces to hole in the ground Capture receives mixed responses Iraqis want Saddam tried in Baghdad Hoagland: Cowardly surrender fitting for Saddam Will: Dealing with Saddam and the political fallout

“That could help us break the insurgency,” she said.

And President Bush suggested as much when he said the former dictator’s arrest might demoralize Saddam’s Baath Party backers, but that they weren’t the only enemy in Iraq.

“For the Baathist holdouts largely responsible for the current violence, there will be no return to the corrupt power and privilege they once held,” he declared.

But he warned that, “The capture of Saddam Hussein does not mean the end of violence in Iraq. We still face terrorists who would rather go on killing the innocent than accept the rise of liberty in the heart of the Middle East.”

Retired Army Gen. Wayne Downing, a former commander of all U.S. Special Operations forces, said the capture won’t stop the “mid-level guys, majors and colonels” who he thinks are leading the attacks.

But Saddam’s capture “may stop the average person in the Sunni triangle from supporting the insurgency,” Downing said. “They see him go down and they’re going to say there is no future in this insurgency.”

Odierno said he was “not sure what the reaction is going to be” around Iraq. “We’ll just have to wait the next few days and see what happens.”

Morale booster

But he and other commanders were greatly buoyed by the capture — a major step in a war they already thought they were winning.

Over the past six weeks, U.S. troops have adopted new tactics that have hurt the Baath Party insurgents and their allies badly, the generals and other analysts say.

“Clearly we’re winning,” the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, declared at a Pentagon briefing last week.

The new tactics have included hundreds of “cordon and search” operations and arrests based on increasing numbers of tips from Iraqis — two of the methods used to capture Saddam.

Recent U.S. tactics also have included aerial bombing and artillery shelling of houses and buildings associated with guerrilla activity and even sealing off some troublesome villages.

Attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq have gone down since the No-More-Mr.-Niceguy approach was adopted, from an average of 30 to 35 a day in October to about 22 daily in November and 20 a day so far in December. But insurgent ambushes have been more effective, including downing helicopters loaded with troops.

With 68 American soldiers killed by hostile action, November was the bloodiest month yet for U.S. forces since Bush declared major combat over May 1.