Washington ? If President Bush and Congress extend tax cuts and help the elderly pay for prescription drugs, they could drive federal deficits to dangerously high levels, hurting retirees and raising interest rates, government and independent analysts said Tuesday.

Even without more tax cuts and a new prescription-drug benefit, the federal government will run up a record $480 billion deficit next year on its way to a whopping $1.4 trillion pool of red ink over the next decade, the Congressional Budget Office predicted Tuesday.

The 10-year projection would more than double if current tax cuts become permanent and older Americans get subsidized drugs, the agency concluded.

The numbers have political and policy consequences that could affect anything from the next presidential election to the retirement and health benefits of aging baby boomers.

The Bush administration and congressional Republicans say an improved economy and frugal government spending will reverse the deficit trend in time. But the budget office predicted a return to balanced budgets by 2011 only if the current tax cuts expire and if the prescription drug plan is paid for or not enacted. Neither seems likely.

The war in Iraq and the worldwide war on terrorism add more uncertainty. What policies Congress decides to pursue over the next two years also will determine how deep into the red the nation goes.

“There is a range of possibilities, and these choices do matter,” budget office director Douglas Holtz-Eakin said. “We cannot do everything simultaneously.”

The choices for blunting the deficit, experts say, are few and politically risky: Cut benefits in entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, raise taxes, or do both.

Most economists agree that deficits during an economic downturn can help by pumping money into the economy through tax cuts or increased spending. What many economists fear is that the deficits will persist even if the economy recovers.

Lawmakers may take solace in the wild, inconsistent nature of budget forecasting.

In 1995, the CBO predicted a $284 billion deficit for 2000. Instead, that year saw a record $254 billion surplus. Even predictions this year have been off. CBO projected a $200 billion deficit for this year in January. The deficit now stands at $401 billion.