Latinos a political paradox

Another political poll arrived the other day to remind us that Latinos are walking contradictions. Thank you, very much.

The New York Times and CBS poll said Latinos back big government and President Bush, who is famously in favor of little government. It said Latinos want more government services and lower taxes. But tax cuts mean service cuts.

The poll said Latinos trust the Democrats to improve public education, but they also like the school vouchers Republicans would give their children to attend private schools. It said Latinos back affirmative action, as true liberals do, but they take the conservative side on abortion and gay marriages.

So what’s new?

Eleven years ago, “The Latino National Political Survey” firmly established that the nation’s three main Hispanic groups — Mexican, Puerto Rican and Cuban-Americans — were liberal in their view on the role of government and at the same time conservative in their moral values. It remains the granddaddy of Latino surveys, tapped extensively by academics and political strategists.

The Times-CBS poll brings the Latino political paradox up to date. What I find most interesting is the Latino affinity for President Bush.

The poll found they approved of his job performance 52 percent to 38 percent, while 54 percent agreed that he “cares about the needs and problems of people like yourself.” By contrast, just 40 percent of Latinos had a favorable view of the Republican Party.

I suspect his appeal to Latinos has a lot to do with his likable personality, ability to speak Spanish and the fact when he was governor of Texas he opposed a ban on services for illegal immigrants.

Polls, of course, don’t dig into charisma and other intangible stuff that really gets presidents elected. So for an explanation of Bush’s popularity among Latinos, I called Marcelino Castillo and Jose Montes de Oca, two rank-and-file Latinos in San Jose, Calif.

“I like a lot of the values he stands for, taking care of the country when tragedy hits,” said Castillo, a Republican and a restaurant owner. “You have some Republicans who are too far on the right, sure. You need some balance, and I think President Bush has done that.”

So I asked, “What about his friendship with Mexican President Vicente Fox? Isn’t that an emotional or cultural connection for Mexican-Americans, if not all Latinos?”

“Yes, there’s something to that,” Castillo said. “He’ll have that perspective on Mexico that other politicians don’t have. He will be more secure in building better relations with Mexico.”

Montes de Oca, a Democrat and director of a nonprofit mental health clinic, offered a completely opposite view.

“Latinos like Bush because he talks to them in plain language,” he said. “But dang, he’s just as disastrous as the other Republicans. It’s his tax cuts. They have the long-term prospect of impacting important services and programs that are near and dear to Latinos, of bringing Latinos to their knees.”

After speaking with these two, I’m glad I’m not a Republican political consultant. I mean, how should Arnold Schwarzenegger go after the Latino vote in California’s recall election for governor? Ah-nole supports the right to terminate a pregnancy, but a lot of Latinos don’t. He voted for California’s Proposition 187 to end services for illegal immigrants, a ballot measure many Latinos saw as racist.

I’ve got it! His wife, Maria Shriver, is a Kennedy, and nobody attracted the Latino vote more than John and Bobby in the 1960s. Nah, a Kennedy would never betray the Democrats, would she?

Latino Democratic strategists have their problems, too. How do you keep the liberal vote when so many Latino voters oppose abortion? How do you keep conservative white Democrats in the fold when so many Latinos approve of affirmative action?

I suppose the lesson behind all these polls is that Latinos, as a group, reflect the range of political views among all Americans. There’s political gold in there for whoever finds the formula for winning the Latino vote consistently, but don’t count on it.