In the intriguing world of duck hunting, it has been a roller-coaster ride of ups and downs throughout history, one fueled in good times by water and slowed to a crawl at other times by a lack of it.

So what’s the situation going to be this year?

Without exception, duck experts from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Ducks Unlimited and the Canadian Wildlife Service are pointing to the sky. It is there where you will find the roller coaster this year, they say.

A combination of timely rainfall, improved habitat and mild temperatures on Canadian and northern U.S. nesting grounds could make 2003 the best production year in the past 10, said Bruce Batt, chief biologist for Ducks Unlimited.

Many others agree with Batt, and looking at a recent survey released by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, one can see why.

The survey shows the populations of breeding ducks have increased this year for all species, including a whopping 43 percent increase in pintails and substantial increases in mallards and teal. Overall duck numbers are estimated to be around 36.2 million birds, up from 31.2 last year.

But even with such great increases in duck numbers, will hunters reap great benefits?

“Your guess is as good as mine as to where they will be come December and January, but let me assure you, these conditions have the makings of a very good year,” said wildlife expert Michael Hungle of Regina, Saskatchewan.

That may sound good, but hunters in Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas and other southern states may be wondering if it is too good to be true. It is easy to understand why they may have a negative attitude.

For many of them, their main interest is how many ducks are in their spreads of decoys in the fall, not how many ducks there are in the Canadian and northern U.S. breeding grounds at this time of the year. They know the number of ducks that migrate south in the fall and winter generally is determined by one factor — the weather.

Freezing temperatures that ice over northern ponds, lakes and feeding grounds force larger numbers of birds to head for warmer climates in the south. As long as they have adequate water and food, they stay put.