Scientists at Kansas University are forecasting a statewide winter wheat yield that is slightly above average, despite drought conditions during the late fall and winter.

Kevin Price, associate director of the Kansas Applied Remote Sensing Program at KU, said the program’s first forecast of the year indicates a winter wheat yield of 42.4 bushels per acre in Kansas. The five-year statewide average is 41.2 bushels per acre. Last year’s average was about 33 bushels per acre.

“It looks like we’ve gotten enough moisture during the winter, especially in the southern portions of the state, to get the crops off to a good start,” he said.

Price, who also is a professor of geography at KU, oversees the development of the GreenReport, a set of four color-coded maps that detail vegetation conditions in areas as small as 250 acres. Using the latest in satellite remote sensing technology, the report can compare current conditions to conditions a week ago or a year ago. It also can provide an 11-year average.

Although the maps look promising, Price said no one would have a definitive answer on the effect of the recent drought conditions until the growing season ends in early June. Because Kansas weather conditions can change so quickly, Price says the GreenReport updates its wheat yield forecast every two weeks.

“We’re not making a forecast as much as we’re reporting on how conditions are right now,” he said.

The forecast is promising, but the state isn’t in the clear. Even though the state received some moisture toward the end of winter, Price said, another dry spell could be problematic.

Using satellite technology, Kansas University researchers can determine which part of the state has the healthiest wheat crop. Dark green on the map above indicates areas where the wheat crop has received adequate moisture. Brown and red areas indicate dry areas.