Iraq’s heat makes timing of war critical

? Saddam Hussein’s military is not the only foe Bush administration planners must reckon with in preparing for war with Iraq.

A formidable force that must be taken into account in every military calculation is the desert weather of the region mildly hot and often wet and cloudy during the Iraqi winter, but after February it is a broiling inferno. The desert in summer is also given to fierce dust storms and sandstorms that can force helicopters to the ground and stop tanks in their tracks.

The White House will not discuss how much the local weather cycle is driving the administration’s haste to win United Nations and congressional approval for an immediate move against Iraq. But clearly it is a factor, according to those inside and outside the administration.

Should the United Nations succeed in returning arms inspectors to Iraq to search for weapons of mass destruction, the U.N. is likely to give its teams at least 60 days before deciding whether their mission has succeeded, analysts said. Following that, the deployment of troops, weapons and supplies for a large-scale land invasion and conquest of Iraq would take some 90 days to complete.

With the heat coming on again in late February, the window of military opportunity is relatively narrow.

If that window is missed, the U.S. could find itself unable to mount an attack until late 2003. Iraq’s leaders are no doubt aware of such considerations.

“Iraq’s best strategy is to defuse the political momentum for a major U.S. attack on Iraq, and to win as much Arab support as it can,” said Anthony Cordesman, a leading Iraq expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Though Iraq is entering its autumn, the high temperature forecast for Baghdad today was 109 degrees, rising to 113 degrees Tuesday. Around the metal of armored vehicles, the temperature can rise to 140 degrees in the desert.

“It doesn’t make military operations impossible,” said Maj. Charles Heyman, editor of Jane’s World Armies. “It will slow people down and they will require enormous amounts of water. That’s a real logistics problem one of an army’s worst logistics problem.”

Military analyst Daniel Goure of the Lexington Institute, a conservative think tank dealing with security issues, agreed: “The logistics demand for water rises dramatically (in the desert). You can answer it, but it’s still a big problem to have enough water for people as they’re running across the desert.”

Excessive heat also causes cramps from a loss of salt through sweat; heat exhaustion, in the form of dizziness, nausea and fainting; and life-threatening heat stroke or sunstroke.

Compounding matters, U.S. troops could face chemical and biological weapons. But the protective suits used by troops could easily immobilize or even kill them in the summer because of heat buildup.

According to an Army report on desert warfare survivability, “Wearing the (protection) suit in hot desert temperatures as a precautionary measure to impending chemical attacks can result in more casualties, including death, than a chemical attack would produce.”

There is one way, however, in which the Iraqi winter is not the best season for an invading force. The cooler weather favorable for a ground campaign is much less conducive to the aerial assault needed to support it.

“You have to split the difference nominally and start the air campaign at a time when the weather is not as bad as it might be but not as good as it could be because you have to leave time for the ground operation,” said Goure.