Florida State at Miami on Saturday should be an easy pick: Miami, by a lot. On the surface, it makes sense.

Top-ranked Miami (5-0) is riding a 27-game winning streak and usually comes up with an exceptional effort at home in the Orange Bowl. No. 9 Florida State (5-1) has a shocking loss to Louisville and was far from impressive in a 38-21 win against Clemson last Thursday night. The Seminoles have lost their look of invincibility.

In rivalry games, though, never count out the underdog, no matter how dire the circumstances. On Sept. 21, for example, Florida beat Tennessee 30-13 despite given little chance to win at Knoxville.

Florida State hopes to pull off a similar stunt. ‘Noles coach Bobby Bowden says he could use another two years to prepare for the ‘Canes, but then gives every indication his team will be ready.

“You’re playing the best. You’ve got everybody’s attention,” Bowden said. “Your coaches know that we’ve got to be very detailed, and things like that, for this game.”

The Seminoles are looking for their first road win against a No. 1 team: They’re 1-3 overall, with the victory at home against Florida in 1996.

Led by quarterback Ken Dorsey and running back Willis McGahee, Miami is third nationally in scoring average at 46.8 points and fourth in total offense at 478.4 yards. Even with the unsteady play of quarterback Chris Rix, Florida State still averages 38.5 points and 446 yards a game.

Defense will be the difference. Led by perhaps the best front seven in the country, Miami’s has been like a brick wall third in yards allowed at 241.2. FSU’s has been scary bad at times, permitting 364 yards and 22.3 points per game.

The weekend is packed with conference showdowns, topped by No. 2 Oklahoma (5-0) vs. No. 3 Texas (5-0) in the Red River Shootout. The winner takes control of the Big 12 South and stays on track for a national title shot.

The Sooners have won the last two games by a combined 77-17, including last season’s 14-3 victory. Texas quarterback Chris Simms is the key. He’s 20-4 as a starter but struggles against top opponents. In his three games against top 10 teams, he has 12 turnovers and one touchdown pass.

The picks: No. 9 Florida State (plus 13) at No. 1 Miami

‘Noles 1-3 vs. No. 1 teams … MIAMI, 35-24.

No. 2 Oklahoma (plus 3) vs. No. 3 Texas (at Dallas)

Time for ‘Horns QB Simms to come through … TEXAS, 28-24.

No. 4 Virginia Tech (minus 8 1â2) at Boston College (today)

Eagles 17-3 at home since ’99 … BOSTON COLLEGE, 24-21.

San Jose State (plus 28 1â2) at No. 5 Ohio State

Bucks’ RB Clarett atones for last week’s fumbles … OHIO STATE, 47-17.

No. 10 Tennessee (plus 3 1â2) at No. 6 Georgia

‘Dawgs ready to take charge of SEC East … GEORGIA, 34-24.

No. 7 Oregon (plus 2 1â2) at UCLA

Bruins out to avenge last year’s one-point loss … UCLA, 31-28.

Pittsburgh (plus 7 1â2) at No. 8 Notre Dame

Panthers have won 11 of their last 12 games … PITTSBURGH, 27-25.

Texas Tech (plus 6 1â2) at No. 11 Iowa State

No reason to go against Cyclones … IOWA STATE, 38-31.

No. 12 Washington State (minus 7 1â2) at Stanford

Cougs QB Gesser is breathing easier … WASHINGTON STATE, 44-21.

No. 15 Penn State (plus 5) at No. 13 Michigan

Wolverines need wakeup call … PENN STATE, 27-23.

No. 14 North Carolina State (minus 61â2) at North Carolina

Wolfpack looking for first 7-0 start since 1967 … NC STATE, 31-21.

No. 18 LSU (plus 8 1â2) at No. 16 Florida

Gators could drop from Top 25 with loss … FLORIDA, 28-24.

Michigan State (plus 6) at No. 17 Iowa

Hawkeyes find way to slow down Spartans WR Rogers … IOWA, 27-24.

Oklahoma State (plus 14 1â2) at No. 19 Kansas State

Against unranked teams, winning is easy for K-State … KANSAS STATE, 35-13.

California (plus 12 1â2) at No. 20 USC

QB Boller passes Golden Bears to a surprising victory … CALIFORNIA, 30-28.

BYU (plus 4 1â2) at No. 21 Air Force

BYU scored 66 vs. Falcons last year … AIR FORCE, 35-28.

Arizona (plus 14) at No. 22 Washington

Huskies bite back after tough loss to Cal … WASHINGTON, 41-21.

No. 23 Wisconsin (minus 13) at Indiana

Badgers looking ahead to Ohio State? … WISCONSIN, 31-14.

Arkansas (plus 6) at No. 24 Auburn

Hogs coming off six-OT loss, Tigers off three-OT win … AUBURN, 24-21.

Arkansas State (plus 29) at No. 25 Mississippi

Rebs roll behind QB Manning … MISSISSIPPI, 42-7.

Last week: 11-7 (straight); 9-8 (vs. points).

Season: 94-25 (straight); 62-48 (vs. points).