Hoping sex, cheap champagne, discounted diamonds and other gimmicks sell, retailers are trotting out bold new tactics and dusting off tried-and-true ones to jolt consumers out of the shopping doldrums and into stores this holiday season.

A year ago, retail industry experts were calling 2001 the most promotional holiday season ever. But many now say this year could be even more intense since consumers remain reticent about spending, the prospect of war with Iraq looms and a calendar shift has trimmed almost a week from the number of shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Yet predicting sales is tricky, because consumers can react emotionally to economic news, good or bad, and to world events. After the terrorists attacks stunned the nation last year, analysts were downbeat about the holidays but shoppers picked up the pace in December. November and December sales combined rose 5.6 percent, compared to 2000.

This year, the National Retail Federation has predicted nationwide retail sales will rise 4 percent during the holiday shopping season, which would be the smallest increase in five years.

Scrambling to get ahead of the pack, retailers are trying out a gamut of promotions to lure shoppers today.

San Francisco-based Gap Inc., the nation’s largest specialty retailer, mailed out “mystery holiday cards” for the first time this year, promising discounts worth “up to $100,” while withholding the exact amount until the shopper gets in the store. The least valuable cards will take $5 off a purchase, Gap says.

Baxter keeps a watchful eye on his block as Emilie Durgan, Lawrence, constructs a tree of lights. After the Thanksgiving dinner plates had been cleared Thursday, Durgan and her family got busy decorating for Christmas. As shoppers hit the stores today, some residents might take advantage of the unseasonably warm weather the high will be in the mid-60s to deck their homes for the holidays.

Wet Seal Inc., an Orange County, Calif., company that sells trendy clothes to girls and young women, is promising free two-way pagers to customers who spend at least $35 in its stores this weekend.

Pushing the envelope a little further will be Abercrombie & Fitch. The youth apparel seller is reportedly planning to trot out male models stripped down to their underwear to greet customers when they enter A&F stores. Lingerie retailer Victoria’s Secret used the opposite sex to tempt buyers, with a prime-time display of scantily clad women during a televised fashion show last week.

In a tactic that seems to be working, Stein Mart Inc., a Florida-based gift chain, is selling diamond bracelets for $19.99. The diamonds are so tiny that the company has to call them “diamond accents,” said Gwen Manto, chief merchandising officer for the off-priced retailer, and Stein Mart can’t make a profit unless shoppers who buy the bracelets also buy something else.

Most shoppers will be looking for deals today.

Almost 80 percent of consumers queried in a recent American Express survey said they would do some holiday shopping at mass merchandisers, such as Wal-Mart and Target, this year. And 86 percent said their shopping decision would be driven by sales, spokeswoman Joanne Fisher said.

“Among those people surfing the Internet, there’s an even higher incidence of bargain hunting,” she said. Of the online shoppers questioned, 95 percent said they’re surfing for bargains.