Don’t accept the ‘inevitable’

I’d like to clarify the government’s recent warnings on potential terror attacks: In essence, the White House and FBI would like you to know that something very bad will likely happen at some point in the future.

They aren’t sure when it will take place. Or where.

But they do know that it will be bad.

The government understands this warning is vague, but they can now be specific about one thing: A terror attack is inevitable.

Not probable, conceivable or plausible.

Inevitable.

In that sense, U.S. intelligence has made major strides. For months, it was a matter of “if.” Now, with certainty, they’re able to say it’s a matter of “when.”

The vice president himself said so. But he and others have admitted they don’t know details. The reason, they’ve explained, is that modern terrorist groups are so fanatical, it’s impossible to penetrate their inner circles.

True, after Sept. 11, the CIA and FBI said we had to get back to relying on agents on the ground instead of satellites in the air. But they haven’t gotten too far on that, so they’ve gone back to the satellites. That’s where they found the latest proof that a bad attack will definitely happen.

It’s based on an increase in “chatter.” Chatter is defined as vague phone and Internet messages between terrorists. They’re so vague, the government doesn’t know what they’re planning, but they do know there’s lately been more chatter, so they must be planning something.

Therefore, Washington has decided to make a statement about the new color-coded Homeland Security alert system. The country is now at the third of five stages of Homeland Security alertness, which is Stage Yellow. Orange is next, with Red indicating severe risk.

Why stay at Yellow when it’s clear an attack is certain? Because the intelligence is “informational” rather than “actionable.”

So here is the government’s advice: Increase your level of alertness, particularly around water supply systems, nuclear power plants, bridges, supermarkets, restaurants, apartment buildings, shopping malls and New York City.

And here’s the worst part.

The inevitable attacks will in time involve several that are far worse than any we’ve faced before. The reason is the government sees no way around terrorist groups obtaining weapons of mass destruction. The United States would like to prevent this, but won’t be able to. As the defense secretary observed, “That’s the world we live in.”

OK, I’m done.

Is all that any clearer?

Probably not, but in many cases, word for word, that’s exactly what the government has been saying these last days. I’m a big supporter of the administration in this fight. But I worry that these latest warnings are driven by politics as much as security. You almost expect the next statement to go as follows:

“The reason we’re announcing this is that there has been finger pointing at the administration for not having predicted the possibility of terror attacks before Sept. 11, so next time, whatever happens, we want to be able to say we warned everyone.”

Last week, FBI Director Robert Mueller went so far as to say “There will be another terrorist attack. We will not be able to stop it.” I don’t mind governmental honesty. But it almost sounds like Mueller and others in Washington are making excuses in advance. If part of this war is to declare our resolve, that’s not the way to do it.

To those charged with fighting terrorists: The people are behind you. We’re smart enough to know terrorism may happen here again. But we’d rather hear what you can do about it, instead of what you can’t.


Mark Patinkin’s e-mail address is mpatinkin@projo.com.