There are half a dozen reasons the summit of 15 European and 33 Latin American heads of state taking place this week in Madrid is unlikely to be much more than a social event.

The II European-Latin American summit, billed by its organizers as a major step toward a planned “strategic association” between the two regions, is part of a 3-year-old European effort to counterbalance U.S. plans to sign a hemisphere-wide free trade agreement with Latin America and the Caribbean by 2005.

“There is one country, the United States, that has a very big predominance,” Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso said at the first EU-Latin American summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1999. “There is a need for a greater diversification of decision-making centers.”

But while the summit on Friday and Saturday will announce the successful conclusion of free-trade negotiations between the EU and Chile, as well as measures to improve an existing EU-Mexico free trade deal, there are several reasons why we may be a long way from substantial trade agreements with the rest of Latin America.

First, the timing of this week’s summit only three weeks before France’s legislative elections makes it almost impossible for Latin American countries to get the European Union to reduce agricultural subsidies that are badly hurting Latin American exports.

France subsidizes its farmers in a big way, and few French politicians will want to risk losing the farm vote. Uruguayan President Jorge Battle, whose country depends on agricultural exports, joked in a recent interview that “the problem with Europe is that they have elections all the time.”

On a more serious note, he told me that “the Europeans will not be able to discuss agricultural issues at the summit because of the upcoming French elections.”

Second, the economic collapse of Argentina one of Europe’s biggest trade partners in Latin America has put a damper on European investment and trade plans in South America.

The EU was negotiating a trade association agreement with Mercosur the regional bloc made up of Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay but that group has virtually broken apart following Argentina’s debacle. The EU and Mercosur will announce completion of political and cooperation agreements at this week’s summit, but the trade part will have to be postponed indefinitely, top South American diplomats say.

Third, despite Spain’s commitment to improving ties with Latin America, the European Union will be focused for the foreseeable future on completing its planned incorporation of East European nations. The EU is set to expand to 25 members by 2007, and will have little energy left to deal with other parts of the world.

Because the EU is scheduled to provide major infrastructure funding to help its newest members come closer to Europe’s average living standards, the incorporation of countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic will strain the region’s resources.

Germany, the richest European country, is still absorbing the cost of its unification with the former East Germany.

Fourth, Europe’s expansion to the East is bound to affect its ties with Latin America, because many East European countries that are about to join the EU produce the same goods as leading Latin American exporters.

“The European Union’s common agricultural policy will extend to agricultural powerhouses like Poland, which will push aside Latin America even more,” says Robin Rosenberg, a trade expert with the University of Miami’s North-South Center. “Polish agricultural exports will get preferential treatment in the European Union.”

Fifth, Spain Latin America’s biggest promoter in Europe will pass on its chairmanship of the European Union to Denmark on June 30. It’s an open question whether the European bloc will be as enthusiastic as Spain in pushing forward the Latin American agenda.

Finally, while European investment in Latin America is considerable, Europe’s trade with Latin America is negligible: It accounts for about 5 percent of the EU’s total commerce. To give you an idea, EU trade with Latin America and the Caribbean, an area with a population of 484 million, is less than the EU’s trade with Switzerland, which has a population of 7 million.

Does this mean the EU-Latin American summit will be a waste of time?

Not really. Senior Latin American officials tell me that it will be one more step in a process that has already resulted in a free-trade deal with Mexico, a soon-to-be announced agreement with Chile, and that it will probably result in similar accords with the rest of Latin America in coming years. But it will take much more time and luck than originally thought.

Andres Oppenheimer is a Latin America correspondent for the Miami Herald. His e-mail address is aoppenheimer@herald.com.