s capture sparks fear about succession

? The weekend arrest of the most-wanted drug lord in both Mexico and the United States is prompting fears of bloody turf wars along the border as rivals try to muscle their way into the multibillion-dollar business long controlled by the Tijuana cartel.

Heavily armed soldiers surprised Benjamin Arellano Felix overnight Saturday at a posh home in Puebla, taking the feared kingpin into custody without firing a shot.

His capture and the confirmed death of his brother Ramon, the family’s enforcer, are expected to cripple the cartel and spark bloodshed among rivals at major border crossings such as Tijuana-San Diego and Ciudad Juarez-El Paso, Tex.

“Most analysts are worried there could be an increased level of violence among the organizations that are trying to establish new routes and new trafficking regions,” said Ana Maria Salazar, a former official in the Clinton White House and professor at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico.

A veteran Drug Enforcement Administration agent, speaking on condition of anonymity, said several months of violence are expected on both sides of the border until a new dominant group emerges.

“I think it is going to be a while before there is a definite group or groups that we can identify. I think it will probably be seven months before anyone can give a reasonable opinion,” the agent said.

Law enforcement experts in Mexico and the United States expect Eduardo and Javier Arellano Felix to make a bid to save the cartel that law enforcement officials say was run by their brother. Gunning for their territory will be Ismael Zampada, a rival drug lord whom Ramon Arellano Felix reportedly was hunting when he was killed Feb. 10 in Mazatlan.

For the past decade, the Arellano Felix family has used violence to keep a strong grip on drug smuggling into California and Arizona for distribution across the United States. The Tijuana cartel may be responsible for moving from one-third to 40 percent of the cocaine consumed in the United States, the DEA has estimated.

The cartel is believed to be behind at least 300 killings in Mexico over the past decade and was said to have bribed and threatened its way into the highest corridors of power. Benjamin Arellano Felix reportedly approached politicians and judges with a no-win choice: accept our money or be killed.

“People were definitely afraid of this guy. I talked to Mexicans who were absolutely terrified. They knew that this guy had so much stroke,” the DEA agent said. “If they perceived you had crossed them, regardless if it was true, you were going to be killed.”

Given the cartel’s reported high-level connections, the arrest of Benjamin Arellano Felix could eventually shed light on some of Mexico’s darkest secrets.

Mystery still shrouds the 1994 assassination of presidential candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio, who was gunned down while campaigning in Tijuana, the family’s home turf. The cartel is believed to have been involved in the 1993 murder of Mexican Cardinal Juan Jesus Posadas Ocampo at the Guadalajara airport.

“I imagine that there are a number of Mexican officials and former Mexican officials who are probably having difficulty sleeping at night right now because this guy has been arrested and (because of) what he knows,” Salazar said.