Estimate still sees red ink for state

Latest figures put Kansas' revenues at $181 million less than expected

? The latest budget numbers are a little better for state government but still plenty bad enough.

Through May 31 for the fiscal year that began July 1, 2001, the state took in almost $181 million less than expected.

State revenue collectionsHere is a look at state revenue collections for July 1, 2001, through May 31. Dollar amounts are in millions.

Source Estimate Actual Diff. Pct. Off
Individual income taxes $1,805.0 $1,639.9 ($165.1) (9.1)
Retail sales taxes $1,365.0 $1,350.1 ($14.9) (1.1)
Compensating use taxes $231.0 $217.3 ($13.7) (5.9)
Corporate income taxes $69.0 $70.8 $1.8 2.6
Alcohol excise taxes $56.3 $55.5 ($0.8) (1.4)
Mineral severance taxes $51.4 $50.7 ($0.7) (1.4)
Insurance premium taxes $49.5 $55.9 $6.4 12.9
Tobacco excise taxes $48.5 $47.7 ($0.8) (1.6)
Estate taxes $46.4 $44.8 ($1.6) (3.4)
Banking taxes $19.5 $21.7 $2.2 11.3
Interest Earnings $36.2 $36.0 ($0.2) (0.6)
Other revenues, transfers ($28.6) ($22.1) $6.5 (22.7)
Total revenues $3,749.2 $3,568.3 ($180.9) (4.8)

The figures came from the Kansas Legislative Research Department. The Department of Revenue released its own, preliminary numbers last week, which showed the shortfall at more than $194 million.

Either figure, if it holds ups when fiscal year 2002 ends on June 30, would blow a big hole in the budget legislators approved and Gov. Bill Graves signed into law for the fiscal year 2003.

State Budget Director Duane Goossen said Wednesday that the state expected to finish its current fiscal year with almost no money left in its general fund. If the shortfall gets any larger, the state could be scrambling to avoid a deficit.

“The point is, we’re down and it’s a big number,” he said.

Graves called a news conference for 1 p.m. today in his Statehouse office. Spokesman Don Brown said the governor expected to discuss the budget and his administration’s response to the latest figures.

“He’s been kind of crunching numbers for the past few days,” Brown said.

A forecast issued in March predicted that the state would collect about $3.75 billion in its general fund for the current fiscal year through May. But the state collected $3.57 billion, or 4.8 percent less than forecast.

Legislators used March revenue estimates to build a $4.42 billion budget for the state’s 2003 fiscal year one slightly smaller than the current budget. If revenues continue to fall below estimates, Graves could be faced with cutting spending even more.

The difference between the Legislative Research Department’s numbers and the projection by the Department of Revenue were in two areas the department doesn’t monitor: insurance premium taxes, collected by the Insurance Department, and nontax sources of revenue. Both ran ahead of estimates.

Goossen noted that the nontax sources of revenue included a $10 million payment for Kansas from a national settlement in 1998 of lawsuits by states against large tobacco companies. The state received the money in April instead of this month, as expected. That means June revenues will be short of estimates by that $10 million.

More significantly, individual income tax revenues were $165 million short of the estimate for the fiscal year to date. That’s even worse than Revenue Secretary Stephen Richards’ prediction last month that they would fall $160 million short when the fiscal year ends June 30.

Richards and other state officials believe those numbers reflect last year’s slumping economy, as well as federal tax relief.